Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: Washington Extends Conditional Support to Zaidi; Parliament Expects Vote on Zaidi’s Cabinet Next Week; KDP Lawmakers Return to Parliament – On April 30, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi and congratulated him on his nomination to form Iraq’s next government. Trump invited Zaidi to visit Washington after his cabinet receives parliamentary confirmation. In a social media post, Trump wished Zaidi “success as he works to form a new government free from terrorism that could deliver a brighter future for Iraq.” He added that his administration looks forward to “a strong, vibrant, and highly productive new relationship,” calling Zaidi’s nomination “the beginning of a tremendous new chapter between our Nations.” Washington’s support, however, appears to be conditional. A State Department spokesperson told al-Hurra that Washington expects “actions, not words” from Zaidi in curbing the power of Iran-backed militias. According to the report, a senior State Department official outlined the “concrete steps” Iraqi authorities should take to win U.S. confidence. These include expelling militias from state institutions, cutting their access to the Iraqi budget, and halting salary payments to their members. On May 5, Speaker Haybat al-Halbousi said Zaidi is expected to present his cabinet to parliament for a confidence vote as early as next week. His announcement came a day after Coordination Framework leaders met with major Sunni parties to discuss government formation and the allocation of posts in line with each party’s parliamentary weight. Meanwhile, Zaidi traveled to Erbil and Sulaymaniyah to discuss government formation with the main Kurdish parties. After the meetings, he declared that all major parties, including the Kurdish blocs, would participate in his government. On May 7, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) announced its return to parliament, citing “positive understandings” regarding government formation achieved during talks in Baghdad and Erbil with Zaidi and other Coordination Framework leaders. The party had been boycotting parliament to protest what it described as “clear legal and constitutional violations” in the April 11 election of Nizar Amedi of the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) as president. In other developments, on May 5, the U.S. State Department’s Rewards for Justice program announced a reward of up to $10 million for information on Akram al-Kabi, leader of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. Kabi is the fourth senior militia leader targeted with such a reward announcement since April. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: New Drone Attacks Target Iranian Kurdish Groups Inside Iraq; Watchdog Warns Press Freedom Under Increasing Attack – Between April 30 and May 6, members of KDP-I, an Iranian Kurdish opposition group based in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, said Iran launched nine explosive drones in three separate attacks on their camps in the region. On May 3, the Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights (IOHR) warned that Iraq is entering one of its most dangerous periods for freedom of expression since 2003, citing a shift from random violence against journalists to the “institutionalization of repression” through laws, administrative measures, and coordinated judicial actions. According to an upcoming IOHR study, press freedoms have experienced a “sharp and unprecedented decline” since October 2023 amid rising intimidation campaigns and political polarization. The group described a “systematic closure of the public sphere,” driven by state institutions, political actors, and armed groups using legal and security tools to silence dissent and push journalists toward self-censorship. IOHR said it documented dozens of violations in 2025 and early 2026, including abductions, assaults, equipment destruction, and judicial harassment. The deterioration is reflected in Iraq’s ranking of 162 out of 180 countries in the 2026 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders, down from 155 the previous year. In other developments, between May 1–3, the explosions of two IEDs near Karbala and Mosul killed one PMF fighter and wounded two other PMF fighters and an Iraqi soldier. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Dollar Shipments Resume; Southern Marshes Rebound; Iraq Reports New Oil Discovery; Sanctions Target Senior Oil Official – On May 2, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Sudani said the United States resumed dollar cash shipments to Iraq after a temporary halt reportedly linked to U.S. pressure on Baghdad to curb the influence of Iran-backed militias. One $500 million shipment reportedly arrived by air in Baghdad on May 1, with another of similar size expected within two weeks. On May 4, Iraqi water officials said water reserves had exceeded 20 billion cubic meters as a result of heavy rainfall and snowmelt this year, with healthy water flows continuing through the Tigris and, to a lesser extent, the Euphrates. This is roughly in line with levels recorded in 2024 and more than double the level reported in May 2025. The improved water situation allowed additional water to be released downstream to replenish the southern marshes, which officials and environmental activists say are seeing expanded coverage and signs of ecological recovery. On May 6, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said Chinese oil company Zhenhua reported a significant oil discovery at the al-Qarneen exploration block in Najaf province. Exploration activities, including 2,850 square kilometers of 3D seismic studies completed in March, point to probable oil reserves of up to 8.8 billion barrels. On May 7, the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on Ali Maarij al-Bahadly, Iraq’s deputy oil minister, along with three members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, for alleged involvement in oil smuggling and militia financing coordinated with Iran’s Quds Force. In other developments, on May 1, Iraq began exporting fuel oil by truck through the recently reopened Yarubiyah–Rabeeah border crossing with Syria. On May 4, a heavy sandstorm swept through central and southern Iraq, sending more than 1,100 people to hospitals with breathing problems. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

For a closer look at how and why Iraq’s oil export system collapsed as a result of the conflict with Iran, read our latest report: Iraq’s Oil Export Crisis – Risks and Policy Priorities.

POLITICS: Washington Extends Conditional Support to Zaidi; Parliament Expects Vote on Zaidi’s Cabinet Next Week; KDP Lawmakers Return to Parliament

On April 30, U.S. President Donald Trump spoke with Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi and congratulated him on his formal nomination to form Iraq’s next government, according to a statement from Zaidi’s office. Trump also invited Zaidi—who was nominated by the Coordination Framework last week—to visit Washington after parliament grants his cabinet the required vote of confidence. In a social media post reflecting his positive view of Zaidi, Trump wished him “success as he works to form a new government free from terrorism that could deliver a brighter future for Iraq.” He added that his administration looks forward to “a strong, vibrant, and highly productive new relationship between Iraq and the United States,” calling Zaidi’s nomination “the beginning of a tremendous new chapter between our Nations.” Washington’s support, however, appears to be conditional. A State Department spokesperson told al‑Hurra that Washington expects “actions, not words” from Zaidi in curbing the power of Iran‑backed militias. According to the report, a senior State Department official outlined the “concrete steps” the Iraqi authorities should take to win U.S. confidence. These include expelling militias from state institutions, cutting their access to the Iraqi budget, and halting salary payments to their members. He added that this could begin with a clear political declaration that such militias are not part of the Iraqi state. Also this week, Zaidi spoke with French President Emmanuel Macron, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, all of whom congratulated him and extended invitations to visit their capitals after government formation is complete. On Tuesday, Zaidi also spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and expressed Iraq’s willingness to play a mediator role in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict between Tehran and Washington. Zaidi and Pezeshkian agreed to exchange visits in the near future. 

On May 4, Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani visited Baghdad for talks with Iraqi political leaders focused on ongoing government formation negotiations. Barzani met with leaders of the Coordination Framework, Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi, caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani, and key Sunni figures. Notably, he did not meet with President Nizar Amedi, saying the decision reflected the KDP’s reservations regarding the manner of Amedi’s election. Barzani described his talks with Zaidi as positive, noting that the prime minister-designate affirmed that civil servants in the Kurdistan Region should receive salaries on par with their counterparts elsewhere in Iraq. In turn, Barzani offered “full support” for cooperation. He also said his meeting with Taqaddum leader (and former parliament speaker) Mohammed al-Halbousi was constructive, with both sides agreeing to “turn the page” after a period of tension. Overall, Barzani characterized his two-day visit as “productive and successful,” adding that discussions addressed the economic fallout from the Iran war, efforts to keep Iraq out of regional conflict, the need to establish a state monopoly over arms, and the government formation process. By Thursday, the KDP announced its return to parliament, citing “positive understandings” regarding government formation that were achieved during talks with Zaidi and other Coordination Framework leaders.

On May 5, parliament speaker Haybat al‑Halbousi said Prime Minister‑designate Ali al‑Zaidi is expected to present his cabinet to the legislature for a confidence vote as early as next week. His announcement came a day after Coordination Framework leaders met with major Sunni parties to discuss government formation and the allocation of posts in line with each party’s parliamentary weight. Meanwhile, Zaidi traveled to Erbil to seek support from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which had been boycotting parliament to protest what it called “clear legal and constitutional violations” in the April 11 election of Nizar Amedi of the rival Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) as president. Zaidi also visited Sulaymaniyah for talks with PUK leader Bafel Talabani, as well as the New Generation and Halwest parties. After the meetings, he declared that all major parties, including the Kurdish blocs, will participate in his government. Coordination Framework sources said on Wednesday that Zaidi was likely to present parliament with a partial cabinet of 14 ministers next week, with the remaining eight portfolios (the cabinet is expected to have 22 ministers) to be finalized in a few weeks after the upcoming Eid holiday.  

On May 5, Talib al-Baydhani, a member of parliament from the Sadiqoun bloc—the political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq—said the group is prepared to hand over its weapons to the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), provided the move is approved by the Coordination Framework (CF) and carried out within official state structures. In televised remarks, Baydhani said the United States does not want armed factions represented in government, citing “clear messages” conveyed through political statements and positions. He added that if the CF adopts a decision to transfer weapons, the group would comply, emphasizing that any handover should be to Iraq’s formal security institutions, including the PMF. Baydhani suggested the position reflects a broader trend among CF-aligned armed factions, noting that Asaib Ahl al-Haq remains aligned with the bloc’s decisions across political issues, including government formation.

On May 5, the U.S. State Department’s Rewards for Justice program announced a reward of up to $10 million for information on Akram al-Kabi, leader of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (HAN), a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. The statement said HAN members under Kabi’s leadership have been involved in attacking U.S. diplomatic facilities in Iraq and U.S. military bases in Iraq and Syria, resulting in casualties. Kabi is the fourth senior leader of an Iran-backed Iraqi militia to be targeted with such a reward announcement since April. Earlier announcements targeted the leaders of Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and Kataib Hezbollah.

Sources cited in this section include: INA, AP, ISHM archive, al-Hurra, Iraqi PM’s office, Ultra Iraq, Rudaw, al-Sumaria, Rewards for Justice, al-Sa’a, Peregraf. 

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: New Drone Attacks Target Iranian Kurdish Groups Inside Iraq; Watchdog Warns Press Freedom Under Increasing Attack

On April 30, members of KDP-I, an Iranian Kurdish opposition group based in Iraq, said that an attack with five explosive drones targeted its Azadi camp in the Koy Sanjaq district of Erbil province. A few days later, on May 5 – 6, the group said the Iranian military attacked two of its camps in Kurdajal (near Erbil) and Sordash (near Sulaymaniyah) with a total of four explosive drones. There were no reports of casualties associated with any of the attacks. 

On May 1, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) command said that one of its fighters was killed when an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated along the road from Karbala to the Saudi border. Two other PMF fighters were also wounded in the explosion, the statement added. The victims, all from PMF brigade 37, were providing security for pilgrimage convoys headed for Mecca. To the north, security sources said on May 3 that an Iraqi soldier was wounded when a legacy IED from the war with ISIS detonated striking an army vehicle while troops were conducting search operations in the desert of al-Hadhar.  

On May 3, the Iraqi Observatory for Human Rights (IOHR) warned that Iraq is entering one of its most dangerous periods for freedom of expression since 2003, citing a shift from “random violence” against journalists to the “institutionalization of repression” through laws, administrative measures, and coordinated judicial actions. According to an upcoming IOHR study, press freedoms have experienced a “sharp and unprecedented decline” since October 2023, amid rising intimidation campaigns and political polarization. The group described a “systematic closure of the public sphere,” driven by state institutions, political actors, and armed groups using legal and security tools to silence dissent and push journalists toward self-censorship. The deterioration is reflected in Iraq’s ranking of 162 out of 180 countries in the 2026 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders, down from 155 the previous year. IOHR says it tracked dozens of violations in 2025 and early 2026, including abductions, assaults, equipment destruction, and judicial harassment. Authorities continue to rely on legacy laws criminalizing “insulting authorities,” while lawsuits have become a key intimidation tactic. The report also criticized delays in passing a Right to Access Information law and accused the Media and Communications Commission of acting as a “punitive tool” through bans and suspensions.

On May 3, Iraqi farmers staged a protest outside the Green Zone in Baghdad, demanding payment of arrears owed by the government for past crop deliveries. Security forces used hot water cannons to disperse the demonstrators, prompting condemnation and calls for an apology and an investigation, including from Parliament Speaker Haybat al-Halbousi. In response, caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani acknowledged the incident in a statement, saying he had instructed his government to review the farmers’ demands and investigate the conduct of security forces.

On May 4, security sources in Anbar province said that two people were killed and six were seriously injured by gunfire in the Abu al-Jeer region, to the west of Ramadi. The sources said the fighting was sparked by a dispute over rights concerning a local farm, without offering details. In response, caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani issued a statement acknowledging the incident and said he instructed his government to review farmers’ demands and investigate the actions of security forces. 

On May 6, Iraq’s Joint Operations Command said the Iraqi air force conducted two air strikes against hideouts used by ISIS militants in the Himreen Mountains within Kirkuk province. The operations destroyed the two hideouts, killing three suspected ISIS militants, the military added. 

On May 6, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke with Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi and discussed the future of security bilateral cooperation, a statement by Zaidi’s office said. The talks focused on the importance of resuming U.S. training support for Iraq’s security forces in accordance with the Strategic Framework Agreement between the two countries, the statement added. On April 21, a The Wall Street Journal report said the Trump administration paused security cooperation programs with Iraqi security forces in an effort to increase pressure on Baghdad to curb the power of Iran-backed militias. 

Sources cited in this section include: Baghdad Today, Rudaw, INA, Shafaq, al-Sumaria, al-Ghad, WSJ.

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Dollar Shipments Resume; Southern Marshes Rebound; Iraq Reports New Oil Discovery; Sanctions Target Senior Oil Official

On May 1, Iraqi customs officials said Baghdad had begun exporting fuel oil by truck through the recently reopened Yarubiyah–Rabeeah border crossing with Syria. The first convoy consisted of 70 tanker trucks, with export volumes expected to increase as operational procedures at the crossing continue to improve, according to Thamir Dawood, head of Iraq’s Customs Commission. This week also saw the first shipments of Syrian goods enter Iraq through the Yarubiyah–Rabeeah border crossing, Iraqi customs officials noted. The development comes three weeks after Iraq began transporting fuel oil by truck through the al-Waleed border crossing for export via Syria’s Baniyas port on the Mediterranean.

On May 2, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani said the United States has resumed dollar cash shipments to Iraq after a temporary halt. One $500 million shipment has reportedly arrived by air in Baghdad on May 1, with another of similar size expected within two weeks. The adviser, Mudhar Mohammed Salih, attributed the pause in hard currency deliveries to logistical challenges caused by airspace closures linked to the conflict with Iran. However, a report by The Wall Street Journal suggested the halt was part of a U.S. pressure campaign aimed at pushing Baghdad to curb the influence of Iran-backed militias in government formation.

On May 4, a heavy sandstorm swept through central and southern Iraq, sending more than 1,100 people to the hospital with breathing problems, a spokesman for the Health Ministry said. Al-Muthanna province reported the highest number of hospitalizations, with 576 people seeking medical attention after the storm. The remainder of cases were divided between Najaf (300) and Baghdad (200), the spokesman added. 

On May 4, Iraqi water officials said the country’s water reserves had exceeded 20 billion cubic meters as a result of heavy rainfall and snowmelt this year, with healthy water flows continuing through the Tigris, and to a lesser extent, the Euphrates. This is roughly in line with levels recorded in 2024 and more than double the level reported in May 2025, when the Water Resources Ministry said reserves ahead of the scorching summer months stood at only 10 billion cubic meters. The improved water situation this season has allowed the Ministry to release additional water downstream to replenish the southern marshes, which officials and environmental activists say are seeing expanded coverage and signs of ecological recovery.

On May 4, the head of Iraq’s Border Ports Commission said the state has collected more than IQD 1 trillion in customs revenue at various ports of entry during the first four months of 2026. The head of the Commission, Omar al-Waeli, said the revenue trends suggest that total revenue for 2026 would exceed IQD 3 trillion by the end of the year. Waeli noted that customs revenue has been seeing steady growth in recent years, having risen from IQD 2 trillion in 2024 to IQD 2.5 trillion in 2025. Those figures marked significant jumps from IQD 807 billion in 2022 and IQD 1.33 trillion reported in 2023. Waeli said the growth reflected the Commission’s efforts to help maximize non-oil revenue for the government. 

On May 6, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that Chinese oil company Zhenhua reported a significant oil discovery at the al-Qarneen exploration block in the southern part of Najaf province. The second exploration well drilled at al-Qarneen in early 2026 flowed at an average of 3,248 barrels per day per day of light oil, the Ministry said in a statement. Exploration activities, including 2,850 square kilometers of 3-D seismic studies completed in March, point to probable oil reserves of up to 8.8 billion barrels, the statement added. Zhenhua was awarded a contract to explore for hydrocarbons and develop al-Qarneed during the country’s fifth and sixth licensing rounds, which concluded in 2024. 

On May 7, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued new sanctions targeting Iraqi and Iran-aligned actors allegedly involved in oil smuggling and militia financing. Those designated include Ali Maarij al‑Bahadly, Iraq’s Deputy Minister of Oil, accused of diverting Iraqi oil to benefit Iran and proxy militias, and facilitating forged documentation and export rights for sanctioned smuggler Salim Ahmed Said. OFAC also sanctioned Mustafa Hashim Lazim al‑Behadili, a senior Asaib Ahl al‑Haq economic official, for overseeing fuel oil theft and smuggling and coordination with Iran’s Quds Force. Four companies he controls were also designated. Two senior officials from Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada—Ahmed Khudair Maksus Maksus and Mohammed Issa Kadhim al‑Shuwaili—were sanctioned for roles in weapons procurement and financial coordination with Hezbollah. These designations block all property of the listed individuals and entities under U.S. jurisdiction and prohibit U.S. persons from engaging in transactions with them. Foreign financial institutions risk secondary sanctions if they knowingly facilitate significant transactions for the designees. 

Sources cited in this section include: Shafaq, INA, ISHM archive, Rudaw, al-Sumaria, Mawazin, al-Aalem al-Jadeed, Iraq’s Oil Ministry, Treasury Department. 

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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