Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: Sudani Shows Solidarity with PMF and INIS After Attacks, Authorizes Self-Defense; Arab States Tell Baghdad to Rein in Militia Attacks – On March 19, amid new U.S. strikes, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani visited the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), where he met PMF Chairman Falih al-Fayyadh, Chief of Staff Abu Fadak, and other senior officials. Sudani stressed that the government will not tolerate attacks against the PMF, reaffirming full support for the paramilitary force as a core component of Iraq’s security apparatus. He later visited the headquarters of Iraq’s National Intelligence Service (INIS) following a drone attack that killed one officer, condemning the perpetrators as a “cowardly group.” While reaffirming the government’s commitment to stability, he warned it would not remain passive in the face of attacks on state institutions. The attack was also condemned by Badr and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Amid escalating violence, Iraq’s Ministerial Council for National Security met on March 24 and authorized the PMF and other security agencies to act on the principles of “the right to retaliate and self-defense” against attacks targeting their facilities. The government also summoned Iran’s ambassador and the chargé d’affaires of the U.S. mission to deliver formal protest letters over deadly attacks on the Peshmerga, PMF bases, and the joint army–PMF base at al-Habbaniyah. On March 25, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan issued a joint statement strongly condemning attacks against them by Iran and its allied militias in Iraq. While reaffirming positive relations with Iraq, they called on Baghdad to take immediate steps to prevent militias from launching attacks from Iraqi territory. They also emphasized their right to self-defense under international law and warned they may take necessary measures to protect their security if such attacks continue. In other developments, on March 22, Kataib Hezbollah (KH) extended its pause in strikes targeting the U.S. embassy in Baghdad for another five days. The group said the pause was conditional on Israel halting airstrikes on Beirut’s southern suburb, the withdrawal of CIA operatives from areas outside the embassy compound, and a U.S. commitment to cease strikes on residential targets. KH also accused Sunni and Kurdish officers in the INIS of links to foreign intelligence agencies and asserted that “no new government will see the light of day” without the militias’ approval. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Strikes on PMF, Army, Peshmerga Bases Kill Dozens; NATO Evacuates Iraq Mission Personnel – Throughout the reporting period, the PMF said that dozens of U.S. airstrikes targeted its leaders and bases across several provinces, with the latest wave concentrated in Anbar, Ninewa, Babylon, and Salah ad-Din. One of the deadliest incidents occurred on March 24, when at least 14 PMF fighters, including the PMF commander in Anbar, were killed and others wounded in a U.S. strike on the army base at al-Habbaniyah, which is also used by the PMF. The same day, additional strikes heavily damaged guesthouses belonging to senior PMF leaders in Mosul. Another major incident followed on Wednesday, when al-Habbaniyah was struck again and strafed by A-10 aircraft, killing seven Iraqi soldiers and wounding more than a dozen. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias continued launching rocket and drone attacks on targets in Baghdad, the Kurdistan Region, and beyond. A notable drone strike hit INIS headquarters in Baghdad, killing one officer. Kataib Hezbollah denied responsibility, alleging the attack was staged by a corrupt intelligence officer to discredit militias. In another incident, rockets struck a Counterterrorism Service base near Baghdad airport, wounding five personnel. Separately, five rockets fired from Iraq hit the Kharab al-Jir base in northeast Syria. On March 24, six Iranian ballistic missiles struck two Peshmerga bases in Erbil, killing six soldiers and wounding at least 30 in a significant escalation. The Iraqi government condemned the attacks as “flagrant violations of Iraqi sovereignty and international law.” On March 20, NATO announced it had evacuated all personnel from its Iraq mission to Europe, adding that operations will continue from Joint Force Command Naples. In other developments, on March 19, Sudani appointed new commanders for operations in Ninewa, al-Jazeera, and Salah ad-Din. On March 20, a woman and a child were killed by an unexploded remnant of war in Kirkuk. On March 25, an IED explosion in Kirkuk killed a police officer and wounded three others, including a PMF commander. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq’s Oil Production Drops 80% After Force Majeure Declaration and Storage Constraints – On March 25, Iraqi oil officials said production had dropped to as little as 800,000 bpd as exports through Basra’s Gulf ports remain halted due to the Iran war and storage capacity has been largely exhausted. This marks a decline of about 80% from pre-war output of 4.4 million bpd. The announcement follows the Oil Ministry’s declaration of force majeure at fields operated by foreign companies, citing the inability to export crude due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In other developments, on March 21, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said Iran had partially resumed gas exports at about five million cubic meters per day—roughly a quarter of average 2024 levels. The supply has enabled Iraq’s electricity generation to stabilize at around 14,000 megawatts, down from pre-war levels of 24,000. On March 25, Iraq’s Civil Aviation Authority extended the closure of national airspace to civilian traffic until Saturday, with further extensions likely. SOMO reported that February crude exports averaged 3.566 million bpd, about 95,000 bpd higher than in January. Iraq is currently exporting only about 250,000 bpd from Kirkuk via Turkey.more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: Sudani Shows Solidarity with PMF and INIS After Attacks, Authorizes Self-Defense; Arab States Tell Baghdad to Rein in Militia Attacks

On March 19, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani visited the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), where he met with PMF Chairman Falih al-Fayyadh, PMF chief of staff Abu Fadak, and other senior officials. Sudani stressed that the government will not tolerate any attacks against PMF fighters or other members of Iraq’s security forces, reaffirming full support for the PMF as a core component of Iraq’s security apparatus. Sudani rejected accusations that the PMF operates outside state authority, calling them either misguided or deliberately misleading. He added that supporting and preserving the PMF is a shared national responsibility, particularly as Iraq faces ongoing challenges. Sudani also directed continued support for families of fallen and wounded fighters, including the provision of land for housing. At the same time, Sudani underscored the need for all security forces to maintain stability, protect key infrastructure and diplomatic missions, and prevent Iraq from being drawn into the broader regional conflict.

On March 22, Prime Minister Sudani visited the headquarters of Iraq’s National Intelligence Service (INIS) following a drone attack on the facility a day earlier. He was briefed on the incident and ordered a thorough investigation, in coordination with other security agencies, to determine those responsible. During a meeting with senior INIS officers, Sudani described the perpetrators as a “cowardly group” that violated Iraqi blood and targeted state institutions. He stressed that such actors do not represent Iraq and that no ideology can justify the attack. While reaffirming the government’s commitment to stability, he warned it would not remain passive in the face of attacks on state institutions and national interests. In his remarks, Sudani also emphasized that decisions of war and peace are the sole responsibility of the state, not armed groups. The attack on the INIS headquarters has also been condemned by Badr leader Hadi al-Amiri and by Asaib Ahl al-Haq.  

On March 22, the Kataib Hezbollah (KH) militia extended a five-day pause in strikes targeting the U.S. embassy in Baghdad first announced March 18 for an additional five days. The militia initially said the pause was conditional on Israel halting its airstrikes against Beirut’s southern suburb (Dahiya), the withdrawal of CIA operatives from locations outside the embassy compound, and a U.S. commitment to cease bombing targets in residential areas. It warned that attacks would intensify if these conditions are not met. The militias reportedly made the move under mounting pressure from Iraqi political leaders, as well as firm warnings from Washington that attacks on the embassy must stop. Turning to politics, KH emphatically reiterated in its March 22 statement that “no new government will see the light of day without the approval of the Islamic Resistance — whether some like it or not,” referring to the umbrella group comprising several Iran-backed Iraqi militias. The powerful militia also distanced itself from the March 21 attack on the INIS while accusing its Sunni and Kurdish officers of being agents for the Mossad, CIA, and Jordanian and Emirati intelligence agencies.

On March 23, the Sunni Political Council in Iraq condemned what it described as threats by Kataib Hezbollah against Sunni and Kurdish officers in the Iraqi intelligence service. The council, which represents Sunni political blocs in parliament, described the threats as “clear terrorism against the state and its institutions” and warned they reflect a dangerous effort to undermine official security agencies. It called on the commander-in-chief and the judiciary to take a firm stance against these armed groups and pursue legal action under anti-terrorism laws. The council also urged the prime minister to take immediate and effective measures against “out-of-control” militias, warning they pose a direct threat to security, social stability, and public order, especially after targeting security, diplomatic, and official sites across Iraq.

On March 24, a Baghdad court issued a warrant for the arrest of former Salah ad-Din lawmaker Ahmed Abdulah al-Jubouri (Abu Mazin), a court document circulating online showed. The warrant cites charges filed against Jubouri by rival Sunni politician and leader of the Azm Coalition Muthanna al-Samarries. The charges were filed under article 431 of the Iraqi penal code, which criminalizes the act of making threats to individuals.

On March 24, Iraq’s Ministerial Council for National Security authorized the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and other security agencies to act on the principles of “the right to retaliate and self‑defense in confronting attacks targeting their facilities,” Iraq’s National News Agency reported. The Council also decided to execute arrest warrants against those involved in targeting security forces, private property, and diplomatic missions, and to work towards exposing the entities behind these attacks. The announcement comes amid intensifying violence in Iraq, including powerful U.S. strikes targeting PMF bases and commanders, a strike on an Iraqi army base, a deadly Iranian ballistic missile strike on the Peshmerga, and a drone strike on Iraq’s National Intelligence Service (details below). At the same time, the Council said the government has summoned Iran’s ambassador and the charge d’affaires of the U.S. diplomatic mission to deliver formal protest letters regarding the attacks on the Peshmerga, PMF bases, and the joint army/PMF base at al-Habbaniyah. Furthermore, the Council instructed the Foreign Ministry to prepare and submit formal complaints to the UN Security Council regarding attacks on Iraq, urging it to condemn the attacks and demand their cessation.

On March 25, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan issued a joint statement in which they strongly condemned what they described as Iran’s blatant attacks on their countries. The Arab states said these attacks occur both directly and through Iran-backed armed groups in the region, especially militias operating from Iraq that have targeted regional countries, infrastructure, and facilities. They also said these actions violate a recent UN Security Council resolution calling on Iran to immediately stop such activities, including through proxies. While reaffirming their positive relations with Iraq, these countries called on the Iraqi government to take immediate steps to stop militias and armed groups from launching attacks from Iraqi territory against neighboring states, in order to prevent further escalation. They also emphasized their right to self-defense under international law, and said they may take necessary measures to protect their security and stability if such attacks continue. In response, Saraya Awliya al-Dam (Companies of the Guardians of Blood), an obscure group that appears to be a facade for other Iran-backed militias, said that operations will continue to exclusively target U.S. bases in the Gulf countries and Jordan. A spokesman for the group cited U.S. plans to deploy additional troops to these bases as the reason for the escalation, noting that these bases are used for attacks on the PMF.  

Sources cited in this section include: Iraqi PM’s office, Shafaq, INA, ISHM archive, al-Sumaria, al-Ghad, Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry, TWI, Rudaw.

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Strikes on PMF, Army, Peshmerga Bases Kill Dozens; NATO Evacuates Iraq Mission Personnel

On March 19, the U.S. military launched fresh airstrikes against PMF bases across Iraq. On that day, airstrikes hit positions for the PMF brigade 12 in al-Tarmiyah, north of Baghdad, as well as the headquarters of PMF operations in Ninewa province. Later, on March 21, airstrikes targeted a base for PMF brigade 52 at a military air strip in the Tuzkhormatu district of Salah ad-Din province, killing one PMF member and wounding several. On the following day, March 22, an airstrike hit a base for PMF brigade 13 in the Kilometer 160 region of Anbar province. Meanwhile, five PMF fighters were reportedly wounded in a strike on their base in al-Harmat region, west of Mosul. Another PMF fighter was wounded after a PMF medical facility in Jurf al-Skahr, southwest of Baghdad, was reportedly hit multiple times. Then on Monday, March 23, airstrikes targeted a unit of the PMF brigade 15 near the Rashad subdistrict of Kirkuk and the headquarters of PMF brigade 27 in al-Karma in Anbar province. One of the deadliest strikes in the conflict to date came on March 24, when at least 14 PMF fighters, including the PMF Anbar commander, Saad Dway, were killed and at least 15 were wounded in a U.S. attack on their base at al-Habbaniyah. On the same day, additional strikes hit the headquarters of PMF brigade 31 in Baiji, wounding seven PMF fighters and largely destroying the base, while another strike heavily damaged the PMF leadership offices in Mosul. Reports indicate the targeted buildings included the guesthouses of Popular Mobilization Commission chief Falih al-Fayyadh and Babylon unit commander Rayyan al-Kildani. Another deadly incident was reported on Wednesday, March 25, when the base at al-Habbaniyah was bombed again and strafed by A-10 attack aircraft. The attack on the base, which is also used by the Iraqi army, killed at least seven Iraqi soldiers and wounded more than a dozen, according to the Defense Ministry. On the same day, two airstrikes targeted a PMF east of al-Qaim in Anbar province, and another airstrike hit a base for PMF brigade 31 near al-Sayniyah in Salah ad-Din province. Finally, on Thursday, an airstrike targeted a base for PMF brigade 63 in the town of Amerli, also in Salah ad-Din province. 

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Iraqi militias operating under the umbrella group known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq continued to launch rocket and drone attacks on various targets in Baghdad, the Kurdistan region, and beyond. On March 20, two explosive drones targeted a U.S. logistical support facility near Baghdad airport but were intercepted and shot down. On the following day, an explosive drone struck near the same facility, while other drones struck residential areas in Abu Ghraib and Baghdad’s Saydiyah neighborhood, wounding two civilians. In a notable attack, an explosive drone struck the headquarters of the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) in Baghdad, killing at least one INIS officer. Kataib Hezbollah distanced itself from the attack while also accusing Sunni and Kurdish INIS officers of being agents for the Mossad, CIA, and Jordanian and Emirati intelligence agencies. KH, whose accusations singled out INIS deputy chief Waqas al-Hadithi, alleged that a corrupted INIS officer staged the attack in order to smear the Resistance. Next, on March 22, rockets struck a base for Iraq’s Counterterrorism Service (CTS) near Baghdad Airport, leaving five servicemembers injured. To the north, explosive drones struck Peshmerga bases in the Chamchamal district of Sulaymaniyah and near Makhmour, southwest of Erbil, injuring three soldiers. All in all, the Islamic Resistance claimed to have launched 21 attacks using dozens of munitions during the previous 24 hours. On Monday, March 23, Syrian military officials said that five rockets fired from Iraqi territory struck the Kharab al-Jir base in northeast Syria, which U.S. forces had reportedly withdrawn from in February. Another dangerous escalation took place on Tuesday, March 24, when a salvo of six Iranian ballistic missiles struck two Peshmerga bases in the Soran district of Erbil. The attack killed six Peshmerga soldiers and wounded at least 30, according to the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs. Kurdish leaders of both major parties strongly condemned the attack as an unjustified act of aggression and stressed that the Kurdistan region was never part of the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, explosive drones struck a residential development area in Erbil City, causing property damage. In total, some 450 drones and missiles have been launched against targets in the Kurdistan region since the conflict began on February 28, according to data compiled by Rudaw. The Iraqi government strongly condemned the worrying escalation, calling the latest attacks on the PMF, Peshmerga, and Iraqi army “flagrant violations of Iraqi sovereignty and international law.” In a statement, national security adviser Qasim al-Araji Araji stressed “the importance of all parties adhering to the agreements concluded between Iraq and its partners, in a way that ensures respect for its sovereignty and strengthens stability in the region.” He underscored the need to “keep Iraq away from regional and international conflicts and spare it the devastation of wars.”

On March 19, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani assigned new commanders for the operational commands in Ninewa, al-Jazeera, and Salah ad-Din. A Defense Ministry document published by INA shows the changes as follows: Lieutenant General No’man Abd Gomar appointed as the new head of the Ninewa Operations Command, replacing Lieutenant General Qutaiba Askar. Major General Faiz Fadhil Jabbar appointed as the new head of al-Jazeera Operations Command, replacing Lieutenant General Kathier Hassan. Major General Imad Ubeid Sadkhan appointed as the new head of the East Salah ad-Din Operations Command, replacing Lieutenant General Ali Mishjal Badr. 

On March 20, NATO announced that its mission in Iraq had safely evacuated all its personnel to Europe, amid rising security tensions linked to the Iran war. The alliance said the final group of NATO Mission Iraq personnel departed earlier on Friday, adding that the mission will continue operating from Joint Force Command Naples in Italy. The alliance noted that the mission advises Iraqi security forces and does not engage in combat. A senior security source said the NATO mission had begun evacuating its camp and withdrawing from Iraq as a temporary measure, adding that personnel would return once the conflict ends and security stabilizes. NATO’s mission in Iraq began in August 2018 at the request of the Iraqi government. It includes several hundred troops and military advisers and works in coordination with the Global Coalition against ISIS.

On March 20, medical sources in Kirkuk province said that a woman and a child were killed in an incident involving an explosive remnant of war that detonated in a village within the Riyadh subdistrict. The explosion also injured nine other civilians who were nearby, the sources added.  

On March 25, an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in the city of Kirkuk while police officers attempted to defuse it, killing a police officer and wounding three other individuals. Security sources said the IED was placed in a trash can outside the home of a PMF commander named Ali Jafar, who was among the wounded. 

On March 25, a military spokesman for Prime Minister Sudani said security forces have arrested four individuals suspected of being involved in launching rockets at Syrian territories from the Iraqi border town of Rabee’a. The spokesman said security forces also seized the vehicle that was used in the attack, adding that the four individuals would be interrogated by the specialized authorities, but did not share details about their identity or affiliation. This marks the first report of an arrest made in connection with the dozens of drone and rocket attacks that have impacted Iraq since the beginning of the Iran war.  

Sources cited in this section include: INA, al-Sumaria, Shafaq, Rudaw, Mawazin, social media, Baghdad Today, Iraq Observer, PUKMedia, Kurdistan24, al-Araby al-Jadeed, al-Hurra.

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq’s Oil Production Drops 80% After Force Majeure Declaration and Storage Constraints

On March 20, Iraqi officials told Reuters that the country’s Oil Ministry had declared a force majeure situation at all oil fields that are run by foreign energy companies. The officials explained that the move was necessary because the country could no longer ship crude from its southern ports due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Subsequent reports on Wednesday indicated that the country’s oil production has dropped to as little as 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) as exports through the Gulf ports of Basra remain halted due to the Iran war and storage depots running out of space. This represents a drop of about 80% from pre-war average output levels of 4.4 million bpd.  

On March 21, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said that Iran has partially restarted natural gas supplies to Iraq, three days after they were halted following an Israeli strike on Iran’s vital South Pars gas field. The current volume of supplies, five million cubic meters per day, represents about a quarter of the average volume of gas that Iran provided to Iraq in 2024. A ministry spokesman said the return of Iranian gas has enabled the grid to achieve a sustained generation level of about 14,000 megawatts, down from 24,000 – 24,000 megawatts achieved in recent months.  

On March 25, Iraq’s Civil Aviation Authority extended the complete closure of the country’s airspace to civilian traffic amid ongoing hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. The closure will remain in effect at least until Saturday, with further extensions likely. 

On March 25, Iraq’s Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) published new data showing that crude oil exports during February totaled more than 99.872 million barrels, for an average of slightly more than 3.566 million bpd. The February exports were about 95,000 bpd higher than the levels SOMO reported for January. SOMO data said the exports generated $6.814 billion in revenue, an increase of about $329 million from January’s revenue of $6.485 billion. The bulk of the exports came from fields in southern and central Iraq and were exported through the ports of Basra. Meanwhile, an average of 198,270 bpd was also exported from fields in the Kurdistan region via Turkey. Volumes exported by trucks to Jordan, which usually average 10,000 bpd, remained at zero for the second month in a row.

Sources cited in this section include: Reuters, Ultra Iraq, ISHM archive, AP, al-Arabyia, al-Sumaria, SOMO. 

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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