Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: Political Deadlock Continues as Trump’s Envoy Meets Maliki; Iraq Calls for Ending U.S. Attack on Iran; Judge Zaidan Seeks to Redefine “Largest Bloc” – On February 27, U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack met in Baghdad with Nouri al-Maliki, the Coordination Framework’s (CF) nominee for prime minister. The visit marked Barrack’s second trip to the capital within a week. Maliki emphasized the need to respect Iraq’s sovereignty and the popular will while calling for continued communication on issues of mutual interest. Sources close to the CF said Barrack outlined several U.S. conditions tied to government formation, including disarming Iran-backed militias, removing Iran’s allies from the cabinet lineup, dissolving the Popular Mobilization Commission, and dismissing Deputy Speaker Adnan Fayhan. During a February 22 meeting with Prime Minister Sudani, Barrack had reaffirmed Washington’s opposition to Maliki’s nomination, stressing the need for leadership aligned with President Trump’s vision for Iraq’s stability. Unconfirmed reports on Thursday said nine of the CF’s 12 leaders agreed during a March 3 meeting to withdraw Maliki’s nomination, but no official announcement has been made, and Maliki remains obstinate. On March 1, the Iraqi government declared three days of mourning for Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28. A government spokesman condemned Khamenei’s killing as an act of “flagrant aggression” and a “clear violation of international laws and norms,” adding that Iraq calls for the immediate cessation of violence. Addressing the fallout from the war at a cabinet meeting, PM Sudani said the government will firmly confront any party attempting to drag Iraq into regional conflicts, asserting that the state alone holds the authority to decide on war and peace. Sudani reiterated the government’s commitment to protecting Iraq’s sovereignty and preventing its airspace and territory from being used in regional conflicts. On March 3, Judge Faeq Zaidan, head of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, criticized a controversial 2010 Federal Supreme Court ruling that has shaped government formation ever since and proposed three ways to change it. The interpretation—which said the largest bloc could be either the one that won the most seats or a post-election coalition of multiple blocs—was flawed and contradicted “the plain meaning of the text, which was written clearly and without any reference to subsequent alliances,” Zaidan wrote in an op-ed. He added that the ruling, which in 2010 allowed Nouri al-Maliki to sideline election winner Ayad Allawi, fuels instability by prolonging negotiations. Zaidan proposed three remedies: amending the constitution to designate the election winner unequivocally as the largest bloc; having the Court reconsider its 2010 ruling; or amending parliamentary bylaws so the largest bloc is declared immediately after an election. In other developments, on March 3 Axios reported that President Trump spoke with KDP leader Masoud Barzani and PUK leader Bafel Talabani after the U.S.-Israel bombing campaign against Iran began. Sources said the calls were related to a U.S.-Israeli proposal involving Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in Iraq attacking the Tehran regime. Baghdad and Erbil reassured Iran’s foreign minister that Iraq would not allow its territory to be used for attacks on Iran and promised enhanced border security to prevent infiltrations. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Iraq Faces Violent Spillover as Iran Retaliates to U.S. and Israeli Attacks; Riots Gather Near U.S. Embassy; Prominent Activist Assassinated – On February 28, airstrikes hit Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) targets in several provinces and continued throughout the week. The strikes, which the PMF blamed on the U.S. and Israel, were concentrated in Jurf al-Sakhr, Diyala, northeast Ninewa, and al-Qaim. More than a dozen militiamen were killed, including senior figures in Kataib Hezbollah. At the same time, Iran-aligned Iraqi militias carried out dozens of retaliatory attacks. Explosive drones repeatedly targeted Iraqi military bases near Baghdad airport as well as facilities in Balad, Nasiriyah, and Basra, though most were intercepted. Iraqi security forces also seized multiple rocket launchers and drones in Abu Ghraib, Ninewa, Salah ad-Din, and Basra that were reportedly intended for targets inside and outside Iraq. One drone landed near the Rumaila oil field, prompting the evacuation of foreign personnel. In the Kurdistan region, officials said around 80 drones and missiles launched by Iran or allied militias targeted the U.S. consulate in Erbil and the Hareer air base. Most were intercepted, though some struck residential areas and one hit a Peshmerga base. Drones also struck camps housing Iranian Kurdish opposition members. Separately, Iraqi security forces came under combined ground and aerial attack in a desert area between Najaf and Karbala, leaving one soldier dead and two wounded. The source of the attack was unclear, though unconfirmed reports suggested a U.S. or allied operation aimed at disrupting militia capabilities threatening U.S. forces and Gulf states. Amid the escalating violence, Prime Minister Sudani convened an emergency meeting of the Ministerial Council for National Security. He instructed security services to prevent actions that could destabilize the country or draw Iraq into regional conflicts. The council also reaffirmed the government’s responsibility to protect diplomatic missions and vital infrastructure while enforcing Iraqi law and international obligations. On March 1, Iraqi security forces clashed with protesters—some carrying Iranian and PMF flags—who attempted to reach the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad’s Green Zone. Authorities arrested three individuals who shot at and injured members of the security forces during the protest. On March 2, the Organization of Women’s Freedom in Iraq (OWFI) said its founder and president, Yanar Mohammed, was assassinated by gunmen outside her Baghdad residence. Police sources confirmed that the prominent women’s rights defender was shot and killed by two gunmen on motorcycles. The Interior Ministry said it has formed a special team to investigate the assassination. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Airspace Closed Amid War; Iraq Makes Drastic Oil Production Cuts, Halts Northern Exports as Violence Disrupts Gulf Shipping, Threatens Industry – On February 28, Iraq’s Transportation Ministry announced the complete closure of the country’s airspace as Israel and the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iran. The closure will remain in effect at least until Saturday. On March 2, Iraq halted crude oil exports from fields in the Kurdistan Region through Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, which had averaged 200,000 barrels per day (bpd), after oil companies operating there suspended production as a precaution amid ongoing regional hostilities. Production was also halted at the Khor-Mor field, which produces most of Kurdistan’s natural gas. On March 3, Iraq’s Oil Ministry shut down production at the South Rumaila oil field and West Qurna-2 as hostilities between the U.S., Israel, and Iran disrupted oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The decision is expected to reduce Iraq’s output by nearly 1.2 million bpd, with additional cuts expected in the coming days. In related news, on March 5 a large explosion struck a crude oil tanker anchored near the Iraqi port of Khor al-Zubeir. Security surveillance footage appears to show a small unmanned boat approach the Bahamas-flagged tanker at speed before exploding. In other developments, on March 5 the federal government sent approximately IQD 275 billion to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to pay part of the salaries of Kurdistan’s public sector employees for February. The KRG expects to receive additional payments by early next week to cover the full payroll. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: Political Deadlock Continues as Trump’s Envoy Meets Maliki; Iraq Calls for Ending U.S. Attack on Iran; Judge Zaidan Seeks to Redefine “Largest Bloc”

On February 27, U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack met in Baghdad with Nouri al-Maliki, the Coordination Framework’s nominee for prime minister. The visit marked Barrack’s second trip to the capital within a week. A State Department spokesperson reportedly said the meetings with Iraqi political leaders fell within “normal diplomatic frameworks” and did not signal U.S. endorsement of any particular candidate to lead the next government. According to a statement from his office, Maliki emphasized the need to respect Iraq’s sovereignty and the popular will, while calling for continued communication and coordination on issues of mutual interest. Sources close to the Coordination Framework (CF) told al-Aalem al-Jadeed that Barrack outlined several U.S. conditions tied to government formation, including disarming Iran-backed militias, removing Iran’s allies from the cabinet lineup, dissolving the Popular Mobilization Commission, deepening Iraqi-U.S. relations, and dismissing Deputy Speaker Adnan Fayhan. During a February 22 meeting with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Barrack had reaffirmed Washington’s opposition to Maliki’s nomination, stressing the need for leadership aligned with President Trump’s vision for Iraq’s stability and regional peace. Unconfirmed reports on Thursday said that nine of CF’s 12 leaders have agreed during a meeting on March 3 to withdraw Maliki’s nomination, but no official announcement has been made, and Maliki remains obstinate.  

On March 1, the Iraqi government declared three days of mourning for the late Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28. A spokesman for the Iraqi government condemned Khamenei’s killing as an act of “flagrant aggression” and a “clear violation of international laws and norms,” adding that Iraq calls for the immediate cessation of violence. Senior Iraqi leaders, including Ayatollah Sistani, President Abdullatif Rashid, parliamentary leadership, and various political leaders issued statements mourning Khamenei’s death. Addressing the fallout from the war at a Cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Sudani said the government will firmly confront any party attempting to drag Iraq into regional conflicts, asserting that the state, through its institutions, alone holds the authority to decide on war and peace. Sudani reiterated the government’s commitment to protecting Iraq’s sovereignty and preventing its air space and territory from being used in regional conflicts. Meanwhile, the leaders of some Iran-backed Iraqi militias vowed to avenge Khamenei’s death with attacks on U.S. interest. 

On March 2, al-Sumaria published a government document showing that caretaker Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani had assumed the role of acting Defense Minister effective January 28, 2026. The move came after former Defense Minister Thabit al-Abbasi was sworn in as a member of the new parliament.  

On March 3, Judge Faeq Zaidan, the head of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, criticized a controversial 2010 Federal Supreme Court ruling that has shaped government formation in the country ever since, and proposed three ways to change it. In an op-ed, Zaidan argued that the Court’s interpretation of the constitutional text regarding the definition of the largest parliamentary bloc was flawed. The interpretation, which said the largest bloc could be either the one that won the most seats, or a post-election coalition made of multiple blocs, contradicted “the plain meaning of the text, which was written clearly and without any reference to subsequent alliances,” Zaidan wrote. The Court’s interpretation also “undermines the will of the voter,” Zaidan continued, noting that “allowing the largest bloc to be formed after the elections may alter the political outcome expressed by voters at the ballot box, weakening the principle of popular legitimacy.” He further said that the interpretation, which in 2010 allowed Nouri al-Maliki to sideline the election winner, Ayad Allawi, feeds instability by “making government formation dependent on complex negotiations that may drag on for months, as happened after the 2010, 2018, 2021, and 2025 elections…and which may recur in future elections.” One solution for the problem, Zaidan argued, is to amend the constitution to unequivocally state that the largest bloc is the one that wins the most seats. Alternatively, the Court should reconsider its 2010 ruling to define the largest bloc exclusively as the election winner. A third option, according to Zaidan, is to amend the parliamentary bylaws so that the largest bloc is declared during the first session after an election.

On March 3, Axios reported that President Donald Trump had phone calls with KDP leader Masoud Barzani and PUK leader Bafel Talabani a day after the U.S.-Israel bombing campaign against Iran began. A source described the calls as “sensitive” without offering details. Talabani later confirmed the conversation, saying Trump “clarified the objectives of the U.S. in the current war.” The outreach reportedly followed months of lobbying by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who “has been relentless” in urging strikes and regime change in Iran. One official said, “It is the general view, and certainly Netanyahu’s view, that the Kurds are going to come out of the woodwork … that they’re going to rise up,” referring to Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, which have presence in Iraqi Kurdistan. The official added that Netanyahu “had the successor planned out” and believed these opposition Kurdish groups would mobilize. Subsequent reports said the prime Minister Sudani reassured Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi that Iraq would not allow its territory to be used for attacks on Iran. Similarly, Nechirvan Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdistan region, told Araqchi on Wednesday that Kurdistan would not be part of the ongoing war. Iraq’s National Security Adviser, Qasim al-Araji, told Iranian officials that Iraqi Peshmerga reinforcements have been deployed to the border to prevent armed groups from crossing into Iran. 

Sources cited in this section include: Iraq Observer, INA, al-Aalem al-Jadeed, ISHM archive, al-Mada, Ultra Iraq, Shafaq, al-Sumaria, Axios, Rudaw.

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Iraq Faces Violent Spillover as Iran Retaliates to U.S. and Israeli Attacks; Riots Gather Near U.S. Embassy; Prominent Activist Assassinated

On February 28, multiple airstrikes hit PMF bases in the Jurf al-Sakhr region, southwest of Baghdad. Initial reports said the strikes, whose origin was unclear, killed at least two PMF fighters and injured three. This was followed on March 1 by further airstrikes on Kataib Hezbollah (KH) bases near the town of al-Qaim in Anbar province that killed three militiamen. On the same day, four PMF fighters were also killed in airstrikes, which the PMF blamed on the U.S. and Israel, that targeted PMF bases in Diyala. On the following day, the PMF reported additional strikes against its bases in Jurf al-Sakhr and al-Qaim, resulting in additional (unspecified) casualties. Another strike on Wednesday hit a PMF vehicle in Babylon province, killing a senior KH commander and another person. To the north, PMF bases came under attack in Bashiqa and near Mosul in Ninewa province, but there were no reports of casualties. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Iraqi militias launched explosive drone attacks throughout the week targeting an Iraqi military base that previously hosted U.S. forces near Baghdad airport. Most of which were intercepted. Security forces also seized a loaded rocket launcher in Abu Ghraib that was aimed at “vital installations” in the capital. Additional rocket launchers and explosive drones were also seized throughout the week in Ninewa, Salah ad-Din, and Basra. The latter were aimed at Iraq’s southern neighbors. The Iraqi military said on Tuesday that air defenses shot down nine drones of unknown origin that approached military bases near Basra and Nasiriyah, while the Balad air base north of Baghdad also reported nearby explosions, the nature of which were not immediately clear. One drone struck near the Rumaila oil field, prompting evacuations of foreign staff. In a statement, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, claimed to have launched at least 29 attacks with dozens of drones and rockets against “enemy bases in Iraq and the region.” To the north, the governor of Erbil said that some eighty drones and missiles fired by Iran or allied militias targeted the U.S. consulate in Erbil and the nearby Hareer air base. Nearly all of the munitions were shot down, while the few that made impact did not result in fatalities. Some struck residential areas and at least one drone also struck a Peshmerga base outside Erbil. Drones believed to be of Iranian origin also attacked a camp housing members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups outside Erbil. In a separate incident on Wednesday, the Joint Operations Command said that security forces came under attack from the air and ground in a desert region between Najaf and Karbala, killing one soldier and wounding two. The source of the attack was not immediately clear, although unconfirmed reports pointed to U.S. or allied airborne infiltrations aimed at neutralizing militia capabilities threatening U.S. forces and Gulf states. In response to these events, Prime Minister Sudani convened an exceptional meeting of the Ministerial Council for National Security on Monday. Sudani reiterated his orders to the security services to confront and prevent any act that could undermine security and stability, and to not allow any party to carry out actions that would drag Iraq into ongoing conflicts, a statement by his office said. The Council stressed that while the state guarantees freedom of expression and the right to peaceful assembly, it also affirms the “government’s commitment to preventing attacks on diplomatic missions or harm to vital facilities.” It stressed that security forces will continue to carry out their duties and enforce the law and Iraq’s international obligations.

On March 1, Iraqi security forces clashed with protesters who attempted to reach the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad’s Green Zone through the 14th of July Bridge. Footage from the scene posted on social media shows chaos with demonstrators, some carrying Iranian and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) flags, seen running as what appear to be stun grenades or tear gas canisters explode around and above them. Iraq’s Joint Operations Command said authorities arrested three individuals who shot at members of the security forces during the protest, injured several, and set fire to vehicles. Images said to show the ID cards of the arrested individuals indicate they were PMF personnel. Authorities have closed the 14th of July Bridge in anticipation of further unrest. Meanwhile, the U.S. embassy instructed “all mission personnel to shelter in place” and suspended all consular operations. 

On March 2, the Organization of Women’s Freedom in Iraq (OWFI) said that its founder and president, Yanar Mohammed, was assassinated by gunmen outside her Baghdad residence. Police sources confirmed that the prominent women rights defender was shot and killed by two gunmen on motorcycles. The Interior Ministry said it has formed a special team to investigate the assassination. Mohammed had recently returned to Baghdad after spending years in Canada. A statement by OWFI said that Yanar Mohammed “devoted her life to defending abused women and survivors of violence and trafficking, and she helped establish and run safe houses that sheltered hundreds of women fleeing oppression and exploitation. She was an outspoken feminist voice that never compromised, a steadfast stance against all forms of violence and discrimination, and she did not back down despite repeated threats and incitement campaigns.”

On March 4, Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) said that a total of 42,284 people have been released from the country’s prisons and other detention facilities as a result of the Amnesty Law amendments that parliament passed in January last year. The statement indicates that only 920 people have been released from custody since the last update on the process provided in February – just a third of previous monthly averages. According to the latest SJC statement, a total of 170,297 convicts and suspects will ultimately benefit from the amended amnesty program.

Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, INA, Mawazin, Shafaq, Iraq Observer, Kurdistan24, Rudaw, Baghdad Today, Reuters, Mawazin, social media, Iraqi PM’s office, U.S. embassy Iraq, Ultra Iraq, ISHM archive. 

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Airspace Closed Amid War; Iraq Makes Drastic Oil Production Cuts, Halts Northern Exports as Violence Disrupts Gulf Shipping, Threatens Industry

On February 28, Iraq’s Transportation Ministry announced the complete closure of the country’s air space to civilian air traffic as Israel and the United States launched airstrikes on neighboring Iran. On Wednesday, Iraq’s Civil Aviation Authority extended the closure for an additional 72 hours, until noon local time on Saturday. 

On March 3, senior Iraqi Oil Ministry officials told Rudaw that crude oil exports from fields in the Kurdistan Region through Turkey’s port of Ceyhan were halted on Monday. According to the officials, the move followed notifications from oil companies operating in the region that they would suspend production until ongoing regional hostilities subside. At least four foreign energy companies have announced the suspension of their operations as a precaution amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory strikes across the region, including in Iraq. The companies that have suspended operations so far include ShaMaran Petroleum, Gulf Keystone Petroleum, DNO, and Crescent Petroleum. The suspension of Crescent’s operations on February 28 halted the majority of natural gas production in the Kurdistan region, and is expected to reduce power generation by more than 2,500 megawatts. Electricity officials in Kurdistan reassured the public that they will seek alternative fuels to reduce the impact on power supplies.

On March 3, Iraq’s Oil Ministry decided to shut down production operations at the South Rumaila oil field and West Qurna-2 as hostilities between the U.S., Israel and Iran disrupted oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. “As a result of the extremely dangerous international political developments and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which has caused storage levels in our oil depots to rise to critical levels—please reduce production and pumping by (100%) from the South Rumaila field starting at 15:00 on 03/03/2026,” the Oil Ministry told the Rumaila Operating Organization in a letter circulating online. The decision is expected to reduce Iraq’s output by nearly 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), and additional cuts are expected in the coming days. In related news, on March 5, a large explosion struck a crude oil shipping tanker while it was anchored near the Iraqi port of Khor al-Zubeir. Security surveillance footage circulating online appears to show a small unmanned boat approach the Bahamas-flagged tanker at speed before exploding. The vessel, which was not loaded at the time, suffered a hull breach but continued to be afloat and there were no reports of casualties. Iraqi sources told Reuters the tanker was contracted by Iraq’s oil marketing arm, SOMO, to pick up 80,000 tons of fuel. Also on Thursday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for an attack on what it said was a U.S. ⁠oil tanker ​in the northern part of ​the Gulf.

On March 5, the federal government sent approximately IQD 275 billion to the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) to pay part of the salaries of Kurdistan’s public sector employees for the month of February, the KRG Finance Ministry said. The KRG expects to receive additional payments from Baghdad by early next week to cover the full payroll. The payment was approved after the KRG sent the federal government IQD 120 billion (approximately $91 million) as remittance for non-petroleum revenue generated during the corresponding month, in accordance with the budget agreement that Baghdad and Erbil announced last July. Last month, government sources said salaries for November and December 2025, which have not been paid yet, remain “frozen” until authorities in Baghdad finish reconciling past payments and remittances. 

Sources cited in this section include: Baghdad Today, al-Sumaria, Rudaw, al-Ghad, Reuters, INA, Shafaq, Iraq Observer, social media, Kurdistan24, ISHM archive, PUKMedia.

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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