Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: IHEC Releases Final Election Results; Top Court Limits Government Powers to Caretaker Role – On November 17, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) released the final results of the November 11 parliamentary election. The results made slight adjustments to earlier projections and confirmed the gains of Prime Minister Sudani’s electoral coalition, which secured 46 seats. IHEC said it had received 400 appeals and complaints from candidates and parties contesting the results. Adjudication is expected to take less than three weeks.On the same day, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court issued a decision terminating the mandate of the outgoing parliament and limiting the powers of Sudani’s government to those of a caretaker administration. The Court clarified that election day formally marks the end of the previous parliament’s legislative authority and requires restricting the powers of the Council of Ministers. Caretaker powers therefore do not include “signing treaties or international agreements, concluding contracts…proposing draft laws, contracting loans, appointing or dismissing individuals in senior state positions, or restructuring ministries and departments,” the Court said. Also on November 17, leaders of the Coordination Framework announced that they have formed the largest bloc in parliament—positioning the alliance to lead the formation of Iraq’s next government. Based on the election results, the Framework’s parties hold approximately 165 seats, potentially giving them a razor-thin majority in the 329-seat legislature. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Tribal Clashes Leave Six Dead in Maysan; PKK Pulls Fighters from Border Areas- On November 15, local and medical sources in Maysan province said violent clashes erupted between two tribes in the Ali al-Gharbi district north of Amara. The fighting, linked to land disputes, left at least six people dead and seven others wounded, some in critical condition. On November 17, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) said it had withdrawn its fighters from the Zab region on the Iraqi side of the border with Turkey as part of de-escalation efforts supporting a peace process with Ankara. The PKK said it moved its fighters away from an area “that created risk of conflict” to locations “more appropriate,” without providing details on numbers or destinations. The step comes three weeks after the PKK announced it was pulling all fighters from Turkish territory to “legitimate defense zones” inside Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. PKK leaders have urged Turkey to support the peace process by adopting transitional laws to regulate the status of PKK fighters and enable their democratic integration. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq, Lukoil, and Rosneft Scramble to Mitigate Sanctions Impact – On November 17, former Lukoil CEO Vagit Alekperov met Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani in Baghdad to discuss options for avoiding disruptions to operations at the West Qurna-2 oil field in light of new U.S. sanctions. One option reportedly under consideration is requesting that Washington suspend the sanctions for six months to allow Lukoil time to sell its stake in the field, which produces 480,000 barrels per day. Last week, the sanctions prompted Lukoil to declare force majeure at the site. In the Kurdistan Region, Natural Resources Ministry officials said Russian firm Rosneft sold part of its stake in the region’s oil export pipeline to a UAE-based company to shield the pipeline from U.S. sanctions. Rosneft, which held 60% of the Kurdistan Pipeline Company (KPC), sold an 11% share to DEX Capital, reducing its stake below the 50% threshold that would trigger sanctions. In other developments, on November 18 a senior Iraqi oil delegation traveled to Ankara to resume negotiations with Turkish officials on renewing the bilateral treaty governing the Iraq-Turkey oil export pipeline. The Oil Ministry described the talks as positive. Also on November 18, Iraq announced the start of construction on a 1,400-megawatt thermal power plant in al-Yusufiyah, south of Baghdad. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: IHEC Releases Final Election Results; Top Court Limits Government Powers to Caretaker Role

On November 17, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) released the final results of the November 11 parliamentary election. The results made slight changes to earlier predictions of seat distribution based on the preliminary results released on November 12. The final seat distribution of winning parties is as follows below. Detailed charts breaking down results by province can be found here. Note that some of the smaller parties on this list are affiliated with some of the larger coalitions, which may result in slight variations from other compilations of results.

• Reconstruction and Development Coalition (Sudani): 46 seats 
• Taqaddum (Halbousi): 30 seats
• State of Law (Maliki): 29 seats
• Sadiqoun (Asaib Ahl al-Haq): 27 seats
• Kurdistan Democratic Party: 27 seats
• Badr (Hadi al-Amiri): 18 seats
• National State Forces (Hakim): 18 seats
• Patriotic Union of Kurdistan: 15 seats
• Azm (Muthanna al-Samarraie): 15 seats
• Siyada (Khamis al-Khanjar): 9 seats
• Ishraqat Kanoon: 8 seats
• Al-Asas (Mohsin al-Mandalawi): 8 seats
• Tasmim (Asad al-Idani): 6 seats
• Huqooq (Kataib Hezbollah): 6 seats
• Hasm (Thabit al-Abbasi): 5 seats
• Khadamat (Shibl al-Zaydi): 5 seats
• Al-Mawqif al-Watani (Halwest): 5 seats
• Ibshir Ya Iraq (Humam Hammoudi): 4 seats
• Kurdistan Islamic Union: 4 seats
• Wasit Ajmal (former governor Mayahi): 4 seats
• Qimam (Khalid Battal al-Najm): 3 seats
• New Generation: 3 seats
• Ninewa Li’ahliha (Abdullah Ajeel al-Yawir): 3 seats
• Jamaheer (Abu Mazin): 3 seats
• Somariyoon (Ahmed al-Asadi): 2 seats
• Tafawoq (Ibrahim al-Namis) : 2 seats
• Turkmen Front: 2 seats
• Parties winning single seats: 12 seats
• Minority quota: 9 seats
• TOTAL: 329 

As IHEC released the final results, it also announced the disqualification of six candidates and the removal of the votes they received from the count after determining that their filings were incomplete. On Thursday, IHEC said that it received 400 appeals and complaints from various candidates and parties who are contesting the results. A spokesman for IHEC explained that the Commission will have a week to review the appeals and prepare technical and legal recommendations that would then be forwarded to the electoral judicial committee, which will have up to ten days to adjudicate the appeals and issue final decisions. 

On November 17, the leaders of the Coordination Framework announced in a statement that they have formed the largest bloc in the country’s parliament. The announcement, made hours after IHEC released the final election results, is a first step that positions the Coordination Framework to lead the process of forming Iraq’s next government. Based on the election result, the parties comprising the Coordination Framework have approximately 165 seats, possibly giving them a razor thin majority within the 329-seat parliament.  

On November 17, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court issued a decision to terminate the work of the outgoing parliament and to limit the powers of the government of Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani to those of a caretaker administration. In its decision, the Court explained that the day of the general election marks the end of the mandate of the previous parliament and the expiration of its authority to legislate and to oversee the performance of the executive authority. At the same time, the powers of the Council of Ministers will shift from full authority to limited authority, confined to taking decisions and measures that cannot be postponed, which ensure the regular and continuous functioning of state institutions and public services. As such, the powers of a caretaker government do not include “signing treaties or international agreements, concluding contracts…proposing draft laws, contracting loans, appointing or dismissing individuals in senior state positions, or restructuring ministries and departments,” the Court decision explained.

Sources cited in this section include: Rudaw, ISHM archive, al-Aalem al-Jadeed, INA, Mawazin, Shafaq.

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Tribal Clashes Leave Six Dead in Maysan; PKK Pulls Fighters From Border Areas

On November 15, local and medical sources in Maysan province said that violent clashes erupted between two tribes in the Ali al-Gharbi district, north of the provincial capital of Amara. The fighting, which the sources attributed to disputes over farmland, left at least six people dead and injured seven others, some of whom were said to be in critical condition. 

On November 16, security sources in Kirkuk province said that authorities have arrested seven members of the security detail of lawmaker Muhaymin al-Hamdani on reports the group was involved in an attack on a family in the Dibis district of the province. The suspects allegedly broke into the home of the family in question, opening fire from their guns, and attempted to kidnap a civilian, the Security Media Cell said in a statement, without explaining the circumstances that led to the incident. Hamdani is a member of the Taqaddum Party of Mohammed al-Halbousi.  

On November 17, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) said it withdrew its fighters from Zab region on the Iraqi side of the border with Turkey as part of de-escalation efforts aimed at supporting a peace process with Ankara. In a statement, the PKK said it pulled its fighters from a region “that created risk of conflict” to other locations that are “more appropriate,” without offering details about the number or destination of the redeployed PKK members. The move comes three weeks after the PKK said it was withdrawing all its fighters from Turkish territory to the “legitimate defense zones” located within Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. PKK leaders have called on the Turkish government to support the peace process by enacting transitional laws to regulate the status of PKK fighters and enable democratic integration and participation in political life. 

Sources cited in this section include: Shafaq, Baghdad Today, Ultra Iraq, Rudaw, ISHM archive.

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq, Lukoil, and Rosneft Scramble to Mitigate Sanctions Impact

On November 17, the former CEO of Lukoil, Vagit Alekperov, met in Baghdad with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani to discuss options to avoid disruptions to production operations at the West Qurna-2 oil field amid new U.S. sanctions on the company, a statement by Sudani’s office said. The statement referred to Alekperov as Lukoil’s chief executive, but it’s unclear in what capacity he was conducting the talks with Sudani. One option under consideration by Baghdad is asking Washington to put the sanctions – which have forced Lukoil to declare force majeure at West Qurna-2 – on hold for six months to give the company time to sell its stake in the prolific field, which produces 480,000 barrels per day (bpd), Iraqi officials told Reuters. ExxonMobil, Chevron, and private equity firm Carlyle have reportedly expressed interest in taking over some of Lukoil’s international assets. It’s unclear whether any of the companies are particularly eyeing West Qurna-2 for acquisition.

On November 18, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said it sent a delegation of senior officials to Ankara to resume negotiations with Turkish energy officials for the renewal of the bilateral treaty of the Iraq-Turkey oil export pipeline. The two sides had extensive discussions about the draft submitted by Turkey and pathways for more cooperation on various energy projects, a statement by the Oil Ministry said, describing the talks as positive. “The understandings that were reached represent an important step toward drafting a new agreement that strengthens the partnership between the two countries and ensures the continuity of transportation operations while achieving shared strategic interests,” the statement added. In July Ankara sent Baghdad a new draft agreement to replace the original one, which was signed in 1973 and extended in 2010, and set to expire in July 2026. At the time, Turkey’s Energy Minister, Alparslan Bayraktar revealed that Ankara’s vision for renewing the oil pipeline agreement requires “a mechanism to ensure full use of this pipeline.” Ankara views the expiring agreement in its current form to be inadequate from a legal and commercial standpoint, according to Bayraktar. The Turkish minister said at the time that his government’s proposal seeks to avoid legal disputes and includes the possibility of extending the pipeline to Iraq’s prolific southern oil fields around Basra.

On November 18, Iraq said that work has commenced on a project to build a 1,400-megawatt power plant located at al-Yusufiyah, south of Baghdad. The thermal power plant project is based on a build-own-operate (BOO) contract model. Footage from the project launch ceremony indicates the investor implementing the project is a company called al-Rida Holding. 

On November 19, officials in the Kurdistan region’s Natural Resources Ministry said that Russian oil firm Rosneft sold part of its stake in the region’s oil export pipeline to an Emirati company in a bid to protect the pipeline from U.S. sanctions. Rosneft controlled 60% of the Kurdistan Pipeline Company (KPC), the entity that owns and operates the pipeline. The Russian company sold an 11% share in KPC to UAE-based DEX Capital, reducing its stake below the 50% threshold that would trigger sanctions. The local KAR Group holds the remaining 40% stake in the pipeline. 

Sources cited in this section include: Iraqi PM’s office, Reuters, ISHM archive, INA, al-Sumaria, al-Ghad.

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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