Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: PM Sudani’s Coalition Emerges as Top Seat Winner in Parliamentary Elections – On November 11, more than 12 million Iraqi voters cast their ballots in Iraq’s sixth parliamentary election in 20 years. Data released by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) pointed to unexpectedly high turnout levels of 56.1%—a notable jump from 43% in 2021. Turnout in Tuesday’s vote was significantly higher in predominantly Kurdish and Sunni provinces than in their Shia-majority counterparts. A compilation of early results released by IHEC on Wednesday shows that Prime Minister Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) was Tuesday’s biggest winner. The RDC received the most votes in eight provinces, including Baghdad, and secured an estimated 45 seats. It was followed by Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition with an estimated 30 seats. The Taqaddum Party of former speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi outperformed other Sunni parties and secured 27 seats. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Democratic Party came in first place in Erbil, Ninewa, and Duhok, also winning 27 seats. Commenting on the conduct and results of the elections, UNAMI chief Mohammed al-Hassan said he was “pleased to see this turnout of voters” and praised “the good organization” by IHEC. In his victory speech, Sudani said the next stage for his coalition will focus on “negotiations based on a unifying and responsible national spirit, aiming to shape the new government.” He affirmed that his coalition is “open to [working with] all national forces without exception,” emphasizing the goal of “building solid understandings that respect the constitution and ensure genuine participation of everyone in decision-making.” For a more detailed analysis of the results, read this week’s full report. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Violent Tribal Clashes, Attacks on Politicians Leave at Least Five Dead – On November 10, two policemen were killed by gunfire during an early morning election rally in central Kirkuk. Security forces arrested more than a dozen suspects in connection with the incident. The suspects’ uniforms suggest that some may be members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). On November 11, four Iraqi soldiers were wounded when unidentified gunmen opened fire on them in the Tuzkhormatu district of Salah ad-Din. The same day, violent tribal clashes in Basra killed two people and wounded five others, including members of the security forces responding to the gunfire. Also on November 11, one person was killed and two were wounded in tribal clashes in the Makhmour district. The fighting—prompted by disputes over water canal rights—involved the use of heavy machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. On November 13, unidentified gunmen attacked the home of a senior aide to a member of parliament in al-Qurna, north of Basra. In nearby Maysan, gunmen attacked the home of a local politician with a rocket-propelled grenade. Both attacks caused property damage but no casualties. In other developments, on November 13, supporters of losing parliamentary candidates from the Shaikhan district blocked key highways linking Duhok with Erbil and Zakho using burning tires to protest the results. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Lukoil Declares Force Majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 Field – On November 10, Russian oil company Lukoil declared force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field in Basra as it deals with newly imposed U.S. sanctions. According to a senior Iraqi official, Lukoil will be forced to halt production and abandon the project—responsible for nearly 500,000 barrels per day of Iraq’s oil output—if the conditions behind the declaration persist for more than six months. Last week, the Oil Ministry canceled three crude oil cargoes totaling four million barrels that were to be lifted as part of Lukoil’s compensation for operating the field due to the sanctions. Cash and in-kind payments to Lukoil will remain suspended until the company and the ministry identify a new mechanism for continuing development and making payments to entities not covered by sanctions. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Lukoil has furloughed non-local staff working at West Qurna-2, while Iraq’s Basra Oil Company and Maysan Oil Company are stepping in to manage operations on a temporary basis. In other developments, on November 8, Iraq’s Ministry of Transport announced the launch of the “Baghdad Ring Line” project, which aims to remove all existing railway tracks inside the capital and replace them with a modern line encircling the city—from al-Yusufiyah in the south to Taji in the north. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: PM Sudani’s Coalition Emerges as Top Seat Winner in Parliamentary Elections

On November 11, millions of Iraqi voters headed to thousands of voting centers across the country to cast their ballots in Iraq’s sixth parliamentary elections in 20 years. Voting on Tuesday took place at 8,703 centers containing more than 39,200 stations, according to data released by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). After the polls closed at 6pm local time, initial figures released by IHEC pointed to unexpectedly high turnout levels as slightly more than 12 million Iraqis cast their votes out of the 21.1 million who had registered to vote, representing a turnout level of 56.1%. These figures include ballots from the special vote that took place two days before the general vote. This is a notable jump from a low of 43% in 2021. A significant  geographic variation in turnout is also evident. Whereas interest voting in 2021 was uniformly low across all provinces, turnout in Tuesday’s vote was significantly higher in predominantly Kurdish and Sunni provinces than in their Shia-majority counterparts. This trend could also be seen within Baghdad, between the mostly Sunni Karkh and mostly Shia Rusafa banks of the Tigris. Additionally, in the 2021 election, the gap between the provinces with the highest and lowest turnout—Duhok and Baghdad—was 23 points; in this election, the gap widened to 36 points, between Duhok’s 76% and the 40% reported in Prime Minister Sudani’s home province of Maysan. Early voting results released by IHEC on Wednesday show that Prime Minister Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) was Tuesday’s biggest winner. RDC received the most votes in eight provinces (Babylon, Dhi-Qar, Maysan, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Muthanna, and Baghdad). Sudani’s coalition also secured second place in Salah ad-Din and a strong third place in Ninewa. The Taqaddum Party of former speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi outperformed other Sunni parties and came first in Anbar and Salah ad-Din, while scoring second place in Baghdad, Diyala, Ninewa, and Kirkuk. Meanwhile, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) came in first place in Erbil, Ninewa, and Duhok. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) won the most votes in Sulaymaniyah and Kirkuk, and came in second place in Erbil. Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law (SoL) coalition didn’t win the most votes in any provinces but was in second place in Dhi-Qar, Muthanna, Wasit, Karbala, Qadisiyah, and was the third vote winner in the capital. Among the main factions of the Coordination Framework, the Badr Organization came first in Diyala and second in Maysan, while Asaib Ahl al-Haq came second in Babylon and Basra, where governor Idani’s Tasmim party came first. The two main electoral coalitions representing reformist parties, al-Badeel and the Civil Democratic Alliance, appear to have failed to secure enough votes to win any seats. In terms of seat distribution, an analysis of the vote by Rudaw suggests that main parties rank as follows:

• RDC: 45 seats 
• SoL: 30 seats
• Taqaddum: 27 seats
• KDP: 27 seats
• Sadiqoun: 26 seats
• Badr: 19 seats
• National State Forces (Hakim): 18 seats
• PUK: 17 seats
• Azm (Muthanna al-Samarraie): 16 seats
• Siyada (Khamis al-Khanjar): 9 seats
• Ishraqat Kanoon: 8 seats
• Al-Asas (Mohsin al-Mandalawi): 7 seats
• Tasmim (Asad al-Idani): 7 seats
• Hasm (Thabit al-Abbasi): 6 seats
• Khadamat (Shibl al-Zaydi): 5 seats
• Al-Mawqif al-Watani (Halwest): 5 seats
• Ibshir Ya Iraq (Humam Hammoudi): 4 seats
• Kurdistan Islamic Union: 4 seats
• Wasit Ajmal (former governor Mayahi): 4 seats
• New Generation: 3 seats
• Ninewa Li’ahliha (Abdullah Ajeel al-Yawir): 3 seats
• Jamaheer (Abu Mazin): 3 seats
• Somariyoon: 2 seats
• Tafawoq: 2 seats
• Turkmen Front: 2 seats
• Parties winning single seats: 12 seats
• Minority quota: 9 seats
• TOTAL: 320 (out of 329)

Commenting on the conduct and results of the elections, UNAMI chief Mohammed al-Hassan said he was “pleased to see this turnout of voters,” and expressed praise for “the good organization” by IHEC. Hassan applauded the “great efforts made by the Commission to ensure the technical and administrative readiness” to hold the vote. In his victory speech, Prime Minister Sudani said the next stage for his coalition will focus on “negotiations based on a unifying and responsible national spirit, aiming to shape the new government — a competent government capable of implementing programs and commitments.” Sudani affirmed that his coalition is “open to [working with] all national forces without exception,” emphasizing that the goal is to “build solid understandings that respect the constitution and ensure genuine participation of everyone in decision-making.”

Sources cited in this section include: AP, INA, Kurdistan24, Rudaw, UNAMI, ISHM archive.

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Violent Tribal Clashes, Attacks on Politicians Leave at Least Five Dead

On November 10, security sources in Kirkuk said that two policemen were killed by gunfire during an early morning election rally in central Kirkuk. According to the sources, groups of rival political parties who were out celebrating the election clashed with each other and the situation quickly escalated to involve firearms. Security forces arrested more than a dozen suspects in connection with the incident. Their uniforms and the weapons in their possession suggests some of them may be members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).  

On November 11, medical sources and eye witnesses in the Tuzkhormatu district of Salah ad-Din province said that four Iraqi soldiers were wounded when unidentified gunmen opened fire on the troops.   

On November 11, security sources in Basra said that a violent tribal clash erupted in the Abu al-Khaseeb district, southeast of the provincial capital. The fighting killed two people and wounded five others, including members of the security forces who were responding to the gunfire, reports added. The clashes resumed in the early morning Wednesday, local reports and footage showed but it’s unclear whether there were additional casualties.    

On November 11, Rudaw reported that a person was killed and two were wounded in tribal clashes in the Makhmour district. The fighting, prompted by disputes over rights to a water canal, involved the use of heavy machine guns and rocket propelled grenades, the report added. 

On November 13, supporters of losing candidates in the parliamentary elections from the Shaikhan district of Ninewa blocked main roads with burning tires to protest the results. The protesters reportedly accuse the KDP of manipulating the results to exclude the candidates in question, who were all running on the party’s list, in favor of other party members. The ongoing protests have blocked key highways between Erbil and Duhok and Duhok and Zakho.

On November 13, security sources in Basra province said that unidentified gunmen attacked the home of a senior aide to a member of the Iraqi parliament in the district of al-Qurna, north of Basra. The attack caused property damage but there were no reports of casualties. 

On November 13, security sources in Maysan province said that unidentified gunmen attacked the home of a local politician using a rocket propelled grenade. The early morning attack in the provincial capital of Amara caused damage to the targeted building, but there were no reports of casualties. 

Sources cited in this section include: Shafaq, al-Sumaria, al-Mirbad, Kurdistan Watch, Rudaw, Mawazin.

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Lukoil Declares Force Majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna-2 Field

On November 8, Iraq’s Ministry of Transport said it launched the “Baghdad Ring Line,” project, which aims at removing all existing railway tracks inside the capital and replacing them with a modern line extending from al-Yusufiyah in the south to Taji in the north. A spokesman for the ministry said the project, managed by an Italian consulting firm, was originally scheduled to begin early in 2025, but was postponed until the launch of the first phase of the Development Road project. The spokesman explained that the old railway lines inside Baghdad have been involved in many collisions with vehicles due to their intersections with public streets and poor compliance with restrictions by the public, arguing that the new ring line will help ease traffic congestion inside the capital.

On November 10, Russian oil company Lukoil declared force majeure at the West Qurna-2 oil field it operates in Iraq’s Basra province, as the company deals with newly imposed U.S. sanctions. The company formally informed Iraq’s Oil Ministry about the decision and disruption to normal operations at the field on Tuesday, sources familiar with the subject told Reuters. According to a senior Iraqi official, Lukoil will be forced to halt production and altogether abandon the West Qurna-2 project, which accounts for nearly 500,000 barrels per day of Iraq’s oil production, if the conditions that created the force majeure declaration were to last more than six months. Last week, the Oil Ministry canceled three crude oil cargoes totaling four million barrels that were to be lifted as part of Lukoil’s compensation for operating the field because of the sanctions. Cash and in-kind payments to Lukoil will be suspended until the company and Oil Ministry find a new mechanism for continuing the oil field development and making payments to entities that are not covered by sanctions, according to an Iraqi oil official. In the meantime, Lukoil has furloughed non-local staff working at West Quran-2, and Iraq’s Basra Oil Company and Maysan Oil Company are stepping in to manage operations on a temporary basis, according to a report by al-Aalem al-Jadeed. 

Sources cited in this section include: Ultra Iraq, Reuters, ISHM archive,  al-Aalem al-Jadeed.

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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