Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: Iraq and Turkey Sign New Agreement to Fund Joint Water Infrastructure Projects – On November 2, Iraq and Turkey signed an agreement outlining the mechanism for implementing water infrastructure projects under a framework agreement the two countries concluded last year. The new agreement, signed by the Iraqi and Turkish foreign ministers in Baghdad, allows infrastructure projects carried out by Turkish firms in Iraq to be financed using revenue from Iraqi oil exports to Turkey. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani hailed the agreement as an important step toward a sustainable solution for Iraq’s water crisis that will support several major joint projects. In other developments, on November 2, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) disavowed lawmaker Hussein Arab, citing fraud and falsified education records that led to his disqualification by the electoral commission. Arab responded by urging the commission to disqualify Sudani for allegedly misusing state resources in his campaign. Political sources say tensions have grown amid speculation that Arab could replace Sudani. On November 4, the Change Movement (Gorran) announced it will boycott Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections in the Kurdistan Region but urged Kurds in Kirkuk and disputed areas to vote for Kurdish candidates. The party said the decision reflects its rejection of an electoral process it claims is dominated by money, weapons, and outside influence. Gorran, once a major reform force, won just one seat in 2021. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Explosion at PMF Base Near Baghdad Kills Three – On November 4, a large explosion occurred at a base used by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in the Jurf al-Naddaf area, southeast of Baghdad. The explosion killed three PMF ordnance disposal experts and caused damage to nearby civilian buildings and vehicles. The PMF attributed the explosion to an accident involving remnants of war stored at the base. In other developments, on November 2, two people were killed in a drone attack—reportedly linked to tribal disputes—that targeted their home in Maysan province. On November 6, Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council reported that 37,253 people have been released since the passage of an amended amnesty law in January. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq Shrinks Winter Agriculture Plan Amid Water Crisis; Refined Fuel Imports Halted – On November 4, the Iraqi government approved a winter irrigated agricultural plan that is significantly smaller than last year’s. The plan covers a total of 4.5 million dunams (a dunam equals 0.247 acres), down from 6.2 million dunams in the 2024–2025 winter season. The plan allows for just one million dunams of land to be irrigated by surface water (down from 3.1 million dunams last year), reflecting the impact of Iraq’s severe water crisis, considered the worst in 90 years. Another 3.5 million dunams of land will depend on groundwater from wells. On November 4, the Iraqi government decided to halt all imports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, citing the expansion of domestic refining capacity over the last three years, most recently in Basra. Having become self-sufficient in these products, the government said it will direct surplus volumes for export, without offering specific figures. In other developments, on November 3, a Turkish Airlines flight landed at Sulaymaniyah International Airport, marking the end of a flight ban that lasted two and a half years. On November 4, Iraq’s Oil Ministry canceled cargoes to be lifted as part of Lukoil’s compensation for operating the West Qurna-2 oil field because of new U.S. sanctions on the company. On November 6, domestic flight operations commenced at Mosul International Airport, nearly six months after its reconstruction was completed. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: Iraq and Turkey Sign New Agreement to Fund Joint Water Infrastructure Projects

On November 2, Iraq and Turkey signed an agreement about the mechanism for implementing water infrastructure projects under a framework agreement the two countries had concluded last year. The new agreement, signed by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein in Baghdad, allows for infrastructure projects carried out by Turkish firms in Iraq to be financed using revenue from Iraqi oil exports to Turkey, according to Turkish officials. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani hailed the agreement as an important component of a sustainable solution for Iraq’s water crisis by supporting a number of major joint projects, a statement by Sudani’s office said without offering details. According to news reports, the mechanism comprises five key provisions: First, Iraq and Turkey will form a joint advisory team to identify priority water projects based on requests from the relevant Iraqi authorities. Second, qualified Turkish companies will be allowed to compete for project implementation in partnership with local Iraqi firms, following standard procurement procedures. Third, project financing will come from a special account funded by sales of Iraqi crude oil, with quantities determined by the Council of Ministers. The oil will be sold to the Turkish company accredited by Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) at international market prices. Fourth, the mechanism stipulates that Iraq will receive 65% of the profit generated if the Turkish company resells the Iraqi oil on the European market at prices higher than the international benchmark. Fifth, oil sales to Turkish companies will follow the established SOMO procedures, and the mechanism will remain in effect for the duration of the Iraq-Turkey water agreement, which is to remain effective for ten years.

On November 2, the Reconstruction and Development Coalition (RDC) of Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani publicly disavowed Hussein Arab, a prominent independent lawmaker who was running for election on the RDC list. A spokesman for RDC said the decision was made because Arab committed fraud and falsified his education records, resulting in his disqualification last week by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). In a sign of potentially deeper conflict between Arab and Sudani, Arab formally called on IHEC to disqualify the prime minister from competing in the upcoming election, arguing that Sudani has abused public resources in his campaign. Political sources told al-Aalem al-Jadeed that tension has increased between Sudani and Arab because the latter is being floated as a potential replacement for the prime minister. These developments coincided with a decision by the judicial commission for election on November 2 to reverse IHEC’s earlier disqualification of Arab.

On November 4, the Change Movement (Gorran) announced that it will boycott Iraq’s upcoming parliamentary elections inside the Kurdistan Region. The group, however, urged voters in Kirkuk and other disputed territories to participate and support Kurdish candidates. The group said the decision was based on internal consultations, member surveys, and recommendations from its General Council. “After discussion and evaluation, it was decided to boycott the elections in the Kurdistan Region’s provinces and reject their anticipated results,” Gorran said in a statement. It added that, “with respect to Kirkuk and the disputed areas, and out of national responsibility, we urge voters to participate and vote for Kurdish candidates who will defend the identity of those areas and the rights of the Kurdish people.” In justifying its decision, Gorran criticized the current electoral process, arguing that it “does not reflect the true will of voters,” and that money, weapons, and regional influence continue to shape outcomes and entrench ruling parties—undermining democracy and eroding public trust. Gorran won only one seat In the last parliamentary election in 2021.

Sources cited in this section include: Iraqi PM’s office, Reuters, Peregraf, ISHM archive, al-Ghad, Shafaq, al-Aalem al-Jadeed.

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Explosion at PMF Base Near Baghdad Kills Three

On October 31, security sources in Basra said that an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated near the office of an oil services company in al-Muhandiseen neighborhood in central Basra. There were no reports of casualties as a result of the explosion.

On November 2, security sources in Maysan province said that two people were killed in a drone attack that targeted their home in the Nahr al-Izz region of the province. The attack is likely tied to prior tribal conflicts, the sources added, without offering more details about its circumstances.

On November 4, an explosion occurred at a base used by the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in the Jurf al-Naddaf area, to the southeast of Baghdad. The explosion killed three PMF ordnance disposal experts and caused damage to adjacent civilian buildings and vehicles. The PMF attributed the explosion to an accident involving remnants of war warehoused at the base.  

On November 4, security sources in Basra province said that a member of the Iraq border guard was seriously injured when an explosive remnant of war detonated near the town of al-Quran, north of Basra City. 

On November 6, Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) said that a total of 37,253 people have been released from the country’s prisons and other detention facilities as a result of the Amnesty Law amendments that parliament passed in January. The statement indicates that more than 2,000 people have been released from custody since the last update on the process provided in October. According to a prior SJC statement, a total of 119,315 convicts and suspects will ultimately be released under the amended amnesty program.

Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, Iraq Observer, INA, Shafaq, Mawazin, ISHM archive. 

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq Shrinks Winter Agriculture Plan Amid Water Crisis; Refined Fuel Imports Halted

On November 3, a Turkish Airlines flight landed in the Sulaymaniyah International Airport, marking the end of a flight ban that lasted two and a half years. The flight comes three weeks after Turkish authorities lifted the ban on flights to the airport, which was first imposed in April of 2023. At the time, Turkish authorities expressed concerns about security threats to civilian aviation due to the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Sulaymaniyah and the PKK’s infiltration of airport security. Flights between Turkish airports and Sulamaniyah will now run four times a week. 

On November 4, the Iraqi government approved a winter irrigated agricultural plan that is significantly smaller from last year’s. A government statement said the plan covers a total of 4.5 million dunams of farmland and orchards (a dunam equals 0.247 acres), down from 6.2 million dunams included in the 2024-2025 winter season. The plan allows for just one million dunams of land to be irrigated by surface water (down from 3.1 million dunams last year), reflecting the impact of Iraq’s severe water crisis, said to be the worst in 90 years. Another 3.5 million dunams of land will depend on groundwater from wells. The plan does not appear to account for crops that depend on rainfall. The statement said the government stressed the need to use modern irrigation systems in wheat farms that will be irrigated by surface or ground water, adding that the Trade Ministry will not purchase from farmers any wheat grown outside the approved agricultural plan.

On November 4, Industry sources told Reuters that Iraq’s Oil Ministry has cancelled three oil cargoes that were to be loaded as part of Russian oil firm Lukoil’s compensation in the West Qurna-2 oil field in Basra. The Iraqi authorities canceled the three cargoes, originally scheduled to load between November 11 – 26, in response to new sanctions that Washington imposed on Russian energy companies last month, according to the sources. It is unclear what long-term impact the sanctions will have on  Lukoil operations at West Qurna-2, which produces about 480,000 barrels per day (bpd).

On November 4, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani instructed his government to end all imports of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, a statement by his office said. Sudani issued the instructions after the expansion of domestic refining capacity over the last three years, most recently in Basra, allowed the country to become self-sufficient in these petroleum products, the statement explained. Surplus volumes of these fuels will be diverted for export going forward, the statement concluded.  

On November 5, the Iraqi government awarded a contract to develop and operate Baghdad’s international airport to a consortium involving Corporacion America Airports (CAAP) and Iraqi company Amwaj International. The airport development, estimated to cost $764 million, involves building a new terminal with an annual capacity to handle up to 15 million passengers (8.5 million in the first phase development), along with other sporting infrastructure. 

On November 6, domestic flight operations commenced at Mosul International airport, nearly six months after its reconstruction was completed. The inaugural flight by Iraqi Airways carried 36 passengers coming from Baghdad. Preparations are still underway to enable the airport to handle international flights, according to a senior Iraqi aviation official. Reconstruction of the airport, which was destroyed during the war with ISIS, commenced in August 2022 and cost an estimated $150 million.  

On November 5, the Iraqi government announced a new initiative in cooperation with a group of local banks to offer easy-access loans to women to help them start small and medium-sized businesses. The initiative, named “Basma” (or fingerprint) will provide training, support, and consulting services for various women-led projects, a government statement said, without providing details about the size of available funding. The initiative will fund a wide range of women-led projects including home-based food production, sewing businesses, small e-commerce ventures, agriculture, women’s service centers, childcare facilities, and design-related fields. 

Sources cited in this section include: Rudaw, ISHM archive, Reuters, Treasury Department, INA, al-Sumaria, Iraqi PM’s office.

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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