Key Takeaways:

• • POLITICS: IHEC Disqualifies More Candidates Days After Certification; Activist Faces Prison After Criticizing PM, Minister – On October 6, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) disqualified several prominent candidates from running in the November election, just days after it had certified eligible candidates and given them the green light to launch their campaigns. The latest disqualifications include independent lawmaker Sajjad Salim, who is facing a ban for the second time, former lawmaker Mohammed al-Dayni, and lawmaker Khalid al-Mafraji. An IHEC document says the decision to disqualify Salim, an outspoken critic of militias, was made because he failed to provide documents proving that he is “of good reputation.” The Siyada coalition of Khamis al-Khanjar, to which Mafraji belongs, condemned the disqualifications and accused IHEC of using double standards by targeting its candidates while allowing militia members and human rights violators to run unimpeded. On October 9, news reports said that a court sentenced Iraqi activist and government critic Yaseen bin Majid to three years in prison on charges filed by Interior Minister Abdulamir al-Shamari. The Interior Ministry has not commented or provided details about the charges, but the activist had recently posted a video on social media in which he strongly criticized Prime Minister Sudani and Minister Shamari for failing to address tribal violence while devoting resources to silencing critics. In other developments, on October 9, the President of the Kurdistan region, Nechirvan Barzani, arrived in Ankara for meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. On the same day, PM Mohammed al-Sudani spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin to reschedule an Arab–Russian summit that Moscow had planned to host on October 15. more…
  • SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Returns from Al-Hol Delayed by Crowded Rehab Camp; Report Claims Mothers Fleeing New Personal Status Religious Rules – On October 5, Iraqi authorities said they halted the return of hundreds of Iraqi nationals from al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria due to overcrowding at al-Jedaa camp in Ninewa, where returnees undergo vetting and rehabilitation before they can return to their home districts. The group was slated to be the 30th overall (and the 13th this year) to return to Iraq from al-Hol. On the same day, a report by al-Sumaria presented statistics that ostensibly reflect the impact of the religious law guidelines recently approved by parliament under the amended Personal Status Law. According to the report, nearly 4,400 mothers have lost custody of their children since parliament adopted the guidelines. This has allegedly prompted at least 800 women to relocate to the Kurdistan region with their children to avoid losing custody. In related news, Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission banned two activists from appearing in the media after they criticized the controversial religious rules on television. One of the activists is reportedly facing an arrest warrant on charges of “publicly insulting religious beliefs.” In other developments, on October 4, tribal clashes in Salah ad-Din and Basra killed two people and wounded six. On October 6, two IED explosions in Anbar wounded three pro-government tribal fighters. On October 8, a civil defense worker was killed when a remnant of war exploded in Dhi-Qar province. more…
  • ECONOMY & CLIMATE: LNG Negotiations with Algeria Stalled; ExxonMobil to Help Develop the Majnoon Oil Field – On October 7, news reports said that Iraq’s negotiations with Algeria and Oman to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) have been stalled for more than two months. According to the reports, both countries have not been enthusiastic about concluding supply deals with Iraq because the volumes Iraq expressed interest in receiving are not large enough. Reports in March indicated that Iraq had approached Algeria to buy up to 1 million tons of LNG per year. Meanwhile, officials with Iraq’s Electricity Ministry said the government is talking to Washington to allay concerns about Baghdad’s other stalled effort to import gas from Turkmenistan via Iran. On October 8, Iraq’s Oil Ministry signed a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with ExxonMobil to help develop the country’s oil export infrastructure and the Majnoon field in Basra, according to a statement from PM Sudani’s office. The statement did not offer details, but sources familiar with the agreement told Reuters it will involve a profit-sharing arrangement. In other developments, on October 6, Turkish authorities extended a 2023 ban on flights to and from Sulaymaniyah International Airport for another three months. On the same day, sources at the Turkish port of Ceyhan said Iraq had sold the first cargo of oil exported from the Kurdistan region since pipeline flows restarted on September 27 after a 30-month halt. The one-million-barrel shipment was sold to European buyers at around $65 per barrel. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: IHEC Disqualifies More Candidates Days After Certification; Activist Faces Prison After Criticizing PM, Minister

On October 6, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) disqualified several prominent candidates from running the November election several days after IHEC had certified the final lists of eligible candidates and gave them a green light to launch their campaigns. Those disqualified in the latest move include independent lawmaker Sajjad Salim, who is facing a ban for the second time. An IHEC document circulating online says the decision to disqualify Salim, an outspoken critic of militias who is running as part of the al-Badeel (Alternative) coalition, for failing to provide documents proving that he is “of good reputation.” Salim’s first disqualification in August, which was later reversed, was based on what he said were malicious accusations of being a Ba’ath Party sympathizer filed by the security directorate of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The latest disqualifications also include former lawmaker Mohammed al-Dayni and the current lawmaker from Kirkuk, Khalid al-Mafraji. The Siyada coalition of Khamis al-Khanjar, to which Mafraji belongs, condemned the disqualification in a strongly worded statement, calling it “a dangerous precedent….that undermines trust in the integrity and fairness of the election.” The party accused IHEC of using double standards by targeting its candidates while allowing militia members and human rights violators to run unimpeded. 

On October 9, news reports said that a court has sentenced Iraqi activist and government critic Yaseen bin Majid to three years in prison in connection with charges filed by Interior Minister Abdulamir al-Shamari. The Interior Ministry has not commented or provided details about the charges, but the activist had recently posted a video on social media in which he strongly criticized Prime Minister Sudani and Minister Shamari for failing to address the problem of tribal violence while devoting resources to silencing dissent. In his video, dated September 8, Yaseen bin Majid criticized the government’s reaction to a September 6 incident of tribal clashes in Baghdad in which two federal police officers were killed and ten people were injured, including five members of the security forces.

On October 9, the President of the Kurdistan region, Nechirvan Barzani, arrived in Ankara for meetings with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Reports in the Turkish press suggest that Barzani’s talks with Turkish officials will focus on advancing the peace process between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as well as recent developments in relations between Ankara, Erbil, and Baghdad. Speaking at a recent policy forum in Erbil, Barzani expressed support for the peace process, starting with PKK disarmament. “We talked with Ankara as well as this group (PKK). We asked what role we could take. Our support was sought during the disarmament process and we lent it,” he told the audience, adding that the peace process was a historic opportunity which “the Kurds should not miss.” 

On October 9, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and discussed rescheduling an Arab-Russian summit that Moscow was planning to host on October 15. A report by al-Sumaria citing a Kremlin statement said the two sides agreed to postpone the summit to a later date to ensure that Arab leaders, who are preoccupied with the impending Gaza ceasefire deal, will be able to attend in person.

Sources cited in this section include: Shafaq, Rudaw, ISHM archive, Iraq Observer, al-Sumaria, social media, INA, Baghdad Today, Hurriyet Daily News.

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Returns from Al-Hol Delayed by Crowded Rehab Camp; Report Claims Mothers Fleeing New Personal Status Religious Rules

On October 4, security sources in Salah ad-Din province said that armed clashes broke out between two tribes in the Tuzkhormatu district of the province. The fighting killed at least one person and wounded three on both sides, the sources added. To the south, In Basra, another person was killed and at least three others were wounded in a gunfight between two tribes in al-Janina neighborhood of the city.   

On October 5, Iraqi authorities said they halted the return of hundreds of Iraqi nationals from al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria due to overcrowding at al-Jedaa camp in Ninewa, where new returnees undergo vetting and rehabilitation before they can return to their home districts. The group was slated to be the 30th overall (and the 13th this year) to return to Iraq from al-Hol, according to a spokesman for Iraq’s Ministry of Migration and the Displaced. In July, Iraqi officials said that a total of approximately 16,000 Iraqis had been returned from al-Hol, with plans to repatriate all Iraqis who are still in the camp by the end of the year. 

On October 5, a report by al-Sumaria presented statistics that ostensibly reflect the impact of the new religious law guidelines that parliament has recently approved under the amended Personal Status Law. According to the report, nearly 4,400 mothers have lost custody of their children since parliament adopted the Jafari (Shia) law guidelines drafted by scholars from the Shia Endowment office. This in turn prompted at least 800 women to relocate to the Kurdistan region with their children to avoid losing custody of their children, the report adds, without providing details about the sources of the data. The new rules, which are 69-pages long, are organized into 337 articles in several sections covering issues related to marriage, divorce, inheritance, wills, and agency. The Law 188 amendments, backed by the Coordination Framework, raised strong opposition from secular parties and rights groups who fear they could revive sectarian divisions, undermine child and women rights, and legalize child marriage. In related news this week, Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission banned two activists from appearing in the media after they criticized the amendments and religious rules on TV. One of the activists is reportedly facing an arrest warrant on charges of “publicly insulting religious beliefs.”

On October 6, local sources in Anbar province said that two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) detonated during search operations by tribal mobilization fighters in the Jazeera sector between Anbar and Salah ad-Din. One of the IEDs exploded while pro-government tribal fighters were inspecting a suspicious structure in the area, wounding three of them. The other IED detonated while the fighters were patrolling a nearby area but did not result in casualties, the sources added. 

On October 6, Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) said that a total of 35,203 people have been released from the country’s prisons and other detention facilities as a result of the Amnesty Law amendments that parliament passed in January. The statement indicates that more than 1,700 people have been released from custody since the last update on the process provided in September. According to a prior SJC statement, a total of 119,315 convicts and suspects will ultimately be released under the amended amnesty program.

On October 8, civil defense sources in Dhi-Qar province said that a civil defense worker was killed while attempting to remove an unexploded remnant of war (ERW) in the Tel al-Laham area, south of Nasiriyah. Sources described the ERW as a submunition from a cluster bomb. 

Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, Baghdad Today, ISHM archive, Shafaq, NINA, Ultra Iraq, Iraq’s parliament, official gazette, Human Rights Watch, Iraq Observer.

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: LNG Negotiations with Algeria Stalled; ExxonMobil to Help Develop the Majnoon Oil Field

On October 6, Turkish civil aviation authorities extended a ban on flights to and from the Sulaymaniyah international airport for an additional period of three months. The flight ban was first imposed in April of 2023, when Turkish authorities expressed concerns about security threats to civilian aviation arising from an alleged increase in activities by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Sulaymaniyah and the PKK’s infiltration of airport security. The ban, initially imposed for 90 days, was last renewed in July. 

On October 6, sources at the Turkish port of Ceyhan said that Iraq has sold the first cargo of oil exported from the Kurdistan region since oil flow by pipeline restarted on September 27 after a 30-month halt. The one million barrel shipment was sold to European buyers at a price around $65 per barrel, the source added. Officials with Iraq’s Oil Marketing Company (SOMO) said this week that exports, which started at a rate of about 190,000 barrels per day (bpd), were continuing smoothly with volumes expected to gradually increase over the coming months. According to SOMO’s deputy director, Hamdi Shingali, the trilateral export agreement between Baghdad, Erbil, and the oil companies will remain in effect through December 31, after which it will be renewed to keep exports going. 

On October 7, news reports said that Iraq’s negotiations with Algeria and Oman to import liquified natural gas (LNG) have been stalled for more than two months. According to the reports, both countries have not been enthusiastic about concluding supply deals with Iraq because the volumes that Iraq expressed interest in receiving are not large enough. Earlier reports indicated that Iraq had approached Algeria in March of this year to negotiate LNG deliveries of up to 1 million tons of LNG a year to supply its power plants. Iraq expects to have a working floating platform to process imported LNG by the summer of 2026. Meanwhile, officials with Iraq’s Electricity Ministry said the government is talking to Washington to allay concerns about Baghdad’s stalled effort to import gas from Turkmenistan via Iran. The import of Turkmen gas, according to a ministry spokesman, “is under discussion to obtain approvals from the American side, aiming to convince them that the gas import is intended to meet domestic needs until national gas production begins, and that this does not affect the sanctions imposed on Iran, since the contract is with the state of Turkmenistan.”  

On October 8, Iraq’s Oil Ministry signed a Heads of Agreement (HOA) document with ExxonMobil to help develop the country’s oil infrastructure, a statement by Prime Minister Sudani’s office said. Sudani highlighted Iraq’s interest in working with U.S. oil majors to develop important oil fields, “including the Majoon field in Basra,” the statement said without offering details. Sudani also said Iraq was interested in working with ExxonMobil to develop oil export infrastructure “and diversify export outlets.” Sources familiar with the agreement told Reuters that it will involve a profit-sharing arrangement. ExxonMobil had previously operated Iraq’s West Qurna-1 oil field in Basra and explored for hydrocarbons in the Kurdistan region but later exited both endeavors due to poor returns and weak exploration outcomes, respectively. Majnoon, which was previously operated by Shell, is located 60 km (37 miles) north of Basra and is estimated to hold as much as 38 billion barrels of oil.  

Sources cited in this section include: Rudaw, ISHM archive, Peregraf, Mawazin, Shafaq, Iraqi PM’s office, Reuters. 

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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