Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: Sudani Visits UAE to Discuss Energy, Transportation Cooperation; IHEC Finalizes Candidate Lists for the November Election – On October 1, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in Abu Dhabi for talks with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed focused on developing bilateral relations in trade, energy, and transportation, including cooperation on implementing Iraq’s Development Road project. Sudani also met with Emirati Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber to discuss petrochemical cooperation and next steps toward construction of a 1,000-megawatt solar power plant that Iraq awarded in 2021 to the Emirati company Masdar. On the same day, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) certified the final lists of candidates eligible to compete in the November election. IHEC data show that a total of 7,768 candidates (5,520 men and 2,248 women) will be allowed to run after more than 800 were disqualified for having criminal records or suspected ties to the Ba’ath Party. This figure is about 160 fewer than the 7,926 who initially registered, reflecting the fact that political parties provided substitutes for many disqualified candidates. For comparison, the current number of candidates is more than double the 3,327 who competed in the 2021 elections for parliament’s 329 seats. In other developments, on September 30, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court dismissed a case filed by 13 lawmakers challenging the legality of an August 26 parliamentary vote to appoint 93 new ambassadors. The lawmakers argued that the vote was illegal because quorum had allegedly been broken, and because the list of 93 ambassadors was approved en masse without giving lawmakers an opportunity to review the nominees’ résumés and qualifications individually. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Netanyahu Threatens to Target Iraqi Militia Leaders if They Launch Attacks on Israel – On September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned leaders of Iran-backed Iraqi militias that they would become targets of Israeli military action if they launched new attacks on Israel. Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Netanyahu listed Israel’s military operations against regional adversaries before adding: “Those militias in Iraq? Well, they’re still deterred. And their leaders, if they attack Israel, will also be gone.” Iran-backed Iraqi militias reportedly launched more than 400 drone and missile strikes against Israel during the first year of fighting following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and Israel’s subsequent operation in Gaza. In other developments, on September 26, Iraqi F-16 jets struck ISIS hideouts in the Himreen Mountains, killing an unspecified number of militants. On October 2, the Popular Mobilization Forces said that its Intelligence and Information Directorate launched a large-scale campaign to pursue and arrest terrorists and members of “the disbanded Ba’ath Party and banned organizations,” describing it as “a preemptive measure in response to plots aimed at destabilizing security and stability.” The PMF did not provide details about the scope or outcome of the operation. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq Resumes Oil Exports from Kurdistan to Turkey After 30-Month Halt – On September 27, Iraq restarted oil exports from the Kurdistan region through Turkey after a two-and-a-half-year suspension. Oil Minister Hayan Abdulghani confirmed that oil was flowing by pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where sales will be handled by Iraq’s Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO), at a rate of nearly 190,000 barrels per day (bpd). Another 50,000 bpd of Kurdistan’s oil will be reserved for local refineries. Oil companies operating in the region will be compensated for production and transportation costs at a fixed rate of $16 per barrel until an international consultant, reportedly Wood Mackenzie, determines actual costs for each field. The long-awaited resumption came two days after Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani announced a “historic agreement” with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and oil companies. The companies expressed optimism that the deal protects their contracts and financial rights, with a spokesman calling it “a win for everyone.” One major producer, Norway’s DNO, has not signed the agreement and said it does not plan to begin exports through the pipeline at this time. In other developments, on September 30, Iraq’s Finance Ministry sent IQD 956 billion (approximately $735 million) to the KRG to cover salaries for July. The payment followed the KRG’s delivery of its oil to SOMO for export and a remittance of IQD 120 billion in non-oil revenues generated in July. Also on September 30, officials in Diyala province warned that villages depending on the Udheim Dam will be completely without water within three weeks as the reservoir dries up.more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: Sudani Visits UAE to Discuss Energy, Transportation Cooperation; IHEC Finalizes Candidate Lists for the November Election

On September 28, the New Generation party said that security forces violated the legal rights of its leader, Shaswar Abdulwahid, and subjected him to ill treatment resulting in physical injuries while transferring him to court that morning. In a statement, the party accused security forces under the command of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan of using unnecessary forceful methods while bringing Abdulwahid to court, including pushing and hitting him while in restraints, resulting in injuries to his hands. The party also claimed that authorities brought Abdulwahid to court without prior notice to his lawyers or family, in a violation of due process. Abdulwahid has already been sentenced to five months in prison by a Sulaymaniyah court after he was found guilty of blackmailing a former member of his party, and reportedly faces additional charges of defamation and financial crimes. 

On September 30, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) dismissed a case filed by 13 lawmakers that challenged the legality of an August 26 vote in parliament to appoint 93 new ambassadors. Lawmaker Hayder al-Salami, one of the 13 who filed the complaint, said the FSC rejected the case “for lack of standing.” The objecting lawmakers had claimed the vote was illegal because quorum was allegedly broken, and because the list of 93 ambassadors was approved en masse without giving lawmakers a chance to review the nominated envoys’ resumes and qualifications one at a time. At least 86 of the new ambassadors have already been sworn in by President Abdullatif Rashid. 

On October 1, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in Abu Dhabi on an official visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Sudani met with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed for talks that focused on developing bilateral relations in trade, energy, and transportation, including through cooperation on implementing Iraq’s Development Road project, a statement by Sudani’s office said. The two sides also discussed regional developments and efforts to prevent further military escalation, the statement added. During his visit, Sudani also had a meeting with the Emirati Minister for Industry and Advanced Technology, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, to discuss cooperation on petrochemical projects and next steps towards the construction of a 1,000-megawatt solar power plant that Iraq had awarded in 2021 to Emirati company Masdar. 

On October 1, Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) said it certified the final lists of candidates who are eligible to compete in the upcoming parliamentary election in November. IHEC data show that a total of 7,768 (5,520 of whom are men and 2,248 are women) will be allowed to compete after more than 800 had been disqualified for having criminal records or suspected ties to the Ba’ath Party. The number is about 160 lower than the number of candidates who initially registered, which was 7,926, reflecting the fact that political parties provided substitutes for many of the disqualified candidates. For comparison, the current number of candidates is more than twice that in the 2021 elections, when only 3,327 people competed for parliament’s 329 seats. The number is, however, only about 10% higher than in 2018, when 6,986 candidates entered the competition. The certified candidates may launch their campaigns starting Friday, October 3, IHEC added in its statement.  

Sources cited in this section include: INA, ISHM archive, Kurdistan24, Shafaq, al-Sabaah, al-Sumaria, Iraq Observer, Iraqi PM’s office. 

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Netanyahu Threatens to Target Iraqi Militia Leaders if They Launch Attacks on Israel

On September 26, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the leaders of Iran-backed Iraqi militias that they would become targets for Israeli military action if they decide to launch new attacks on Israel. Speaking during his address to the United Nations General Assembly, Netanyahu went through a list of Israel’s military exploits against regional foes, then remarked: ”Those militias in Iraq? Well, they’re still deterred. And their leaders, if they attack Israel, will also be gone.” Iran-backed Iraqi militias had reportedly launched more than 400 drone and missile strikes against Israel during the first year of fighting following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel and subsequent Israeli operation in Gaza.   

On September 26, Iraqi F-16 jets conducted airstrikes against ISIS hideouts in the Himreen Mountains along the border between Kirkuk and Salah ad-Din province, Iraqi security sources said. The airstrikes destroyed several hideouts and tunnels used by the militants in the area near the Abbas oil field, the sources added. Iraqi forces are working to determine ISIS casualties from the strikes. 

On October 1, local sources in Maysan province said that a gunfight erupted between members of two tribes in the al-Kahla district of the province. The fighting, which the sources said was heavy, injured one person and set a house on fire. 

On October 2, the Popular Mobilization Commission said it launched a large-scale campaign to pursue and arrest “remnants of terrorism, the disbanded Ba’ath Party, and banned organizations.” In a statement, the Commission, which is in charge of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said that its Intelligence and Information directorate described the operation as a preemptive measure to “arrest and dismantle several dangerous and wanted networks and individuals.” It added that the campaign was launched in response to threats of “plots aimed at destabilizing security and stability,” without offering further details about the scope of outcome of this operation.

Sources cited in this section include: Government of Israel, ISHM archive, Shafaq, al-Mirbad, al-Sumaria. 

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Iraq Resumes Oil Exports from Kurdistan to Turkey After 30-Month Halt

On September 27, Iraq restarted oil exports from the Kurdistan region through Turkey after being halted for two and a half years. Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Adbulghani confirmed that oil was flowing from Kurdistan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, where sales will be handled by Iraq’s Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO), at a rate of nearly 190,000 barrels per day (bpd). Another 50,000 bpd of oil produced in Kurdistan will be reserved for local use in the region’s refineries. Oil companies operating Kurdistan’s oil fields will be compensated for production and transportation costs at a fixed rate of $16 per barrel in accordance with the federal budget amendment that parliament passed in February, the minister added. An international consultant, reportedly Wood Mackenzie, will assess the actual production and transportation costs for each individual field to set the compensation rate going forward, SOMO’s director Ali Nazar explained. Industry sources told Shafaq on Tuesday that oil flow was holding steady at a rate of around 190,000 bpd. The long-awaited resumption of exports came two days after Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani said his government reached a “historic agreement” with the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) and oil companies operating to resume exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. Sudani said the agreement “guarantees fair distribution of wealth, diversifies export outlets, and encourages investments,” hailing the deal as “an achievement we’ve awaited for 18 years.” The companies expressed optimism that the agreement ensures the protection of their contracts and financial rights, with a spokesman for the companies calling it “a win for everyone.” One important oil producer in Kurdistan, Norway’s DNO, has not signed the agreement and said it was not planning to begin exports through the pipeline at this point. DNO, along with its joint venture partner, Genel Energy, say the payment of about $300 million in arrears for past production must be addressed first. Meanwhile, SOMO’s director Ali Nazar affirmed that the trilateral agreement does not obligate the federal government to pay any arrears owed by the KRG to the foreign oil companies. 

On September 30, the federal Finance Ministry sent a sum of IQD 956 billion (approximately $735 million) to the KRG to pay the salaries of Kurdistan’s public sector employees for the month of July. The payment was released after the KRG began delivering its oil to the federal government for export through Turkey and sent the federal government IQD 120 billion (approximately $91 million) as remittance for non-petroleum revenue generated during the corresponding month, in accordance with the budget agreement that Baghdad and Erbil announced in July. 

On September 30, Iraqi oil officials said that Iraq’s oil exports to Jordan will resume on October 1 after being suspended for more than two months. According to an official with Iraq’s North Oil Company, Iraq and Jordan have agreed during a meeting on September 28 to renew their oil supply agreement for three months under the same terms as before. News reports recently said the exports, which usually averaged between 10,000 and 15,000 bpd, were halted in late June as the two countries negotiated the transportation costs, with Iraq seeking to lower them from $16 per barrel to $12 per barrel, while Jordan trying to keep the fees unchanged. Iraq had been selling oil to Jordan at a discount accounting for the high cost of transportation. 

On September 30, local officials in Diyala province warned that villages that depend on the Udheim Dam are at risk of losing their entire water supply within a few weeks. According to the mayor of the Udheim subdistrict, the Udheim Dam has lost most of its water, and the little volume that remains is highly polluted and unsuitable for human use. The official estimates that the surrounding villages have no more than 20 days of water remaining. To the north, in Duhok province, local sources say that the Bibava Dam in the Amadiyah district has gone dry for the first time since its construction in 1990. Local farmers are reporting crop failures and complete loss of the fish population.

Sources cited in this section include: Rudaw, INA, ISHM archive, Shafaq, Reuters, PUKMedia, Peregraf. 

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