Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: Sadr Sends Mixed Messages About Elections; Committee Presents Proposal to Amend Election Law; Sudani to Visit Turkey – On March 27, news sites circulated a message attributed to Muqtada al-Sadr in which he urged his followers to refrain from participating in the next election, whether by running as candidates or voting. In the message, notably dated February 15, Sadr reiterated his vow to stay out of a political process dominated by “ethnic, sectarian, and partisan interests.” The message, if authentic, was issued four days before a contradictory February 19 communication in which Sadr encouraged his followers to update their voter registration records. On April 1, the parliamentary legal committee proposed a new amendment to the country’s 2023 election law. The amendments, proposed by committee member Raed al-Maliki of the Coordination Framework, would designate each province as a single electoral district, except for Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul, which would be divided into two districts. The amendments propose allocating 30% of seats in each district to candidates who receive the most votes and exceed 1.5% of the total, while 70% of seats would be reserved for party list candidates. Additionally, the quotient used in the “Saint-Laguë” formula of proportional representation would be adjusted to start at 1.5 instead of 1.7. The proposal also includes automatic resignation for any parliament member running for local elections, or any governor or provincial council member running for parliamentary elections. Some lawmakers criticized the proposal, arguing that it complicates calculations and creates ambiguities that could reduce transparency in seat allocations. On April 2, Iraq’s ambassador to Turkey said that Prime Minister Sudani is planning to visit Turkey within days to discuss the Development Road project and partnerships in trade, transportation, and energy. In other developments, on April 1, Sudani spoke on the phone with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to exchange Eid al-Fitr greetings. During the call, the first direct contact between the two, Sudani expressed support for an inclusive political process in Syria and underscored Iraq’s interest in economic cooperation and joint action against ISIS. more…
• SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Terrorism Motive Suspected Behind Axe Attack on Assyrian Holiday Parade in Duhok – On April 1, an axe-wielding individual attacked a parade of Iraqi Christians celebrating the Akitu holiday, which marks the Assyrian New Year, in the city of Duhok. Two victims, a young man and a woman in her 70s, were taken to the hospital for treatment after sustaining serious head wounds. The Kurdistan region’s security council said initial information suggests that the attacker, who was apprehended immediately after the attack, is a Syrian national who has endorsed “the terrorist ideology of Daesh.” In other developments, on March 28, Iraqi F-16 jets killed at least two ISIS militants in an airstrike on their hideout in Anbar province. The airstrike produced secondary explosions, indicating it hit weapon stores. On April 1, an old land mine detonated in the Sedikan subdistrict of Erbil, killing a local man. On April 2, Iraqi authorities repatriated 681 Iraqi nationals comprising 168 households from al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria. On April 3, the Popular Mobilization Forces said they deployed anti-tank weapon squads along the border with Syria to enhance the defensive capabilities of units in this sector. more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Oil Companies in Kurdistan Say Baghdad Negotiates in Bad Faith; Oil Refining Capacity to Exceed 1.5 Million BPD – On March 28, the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) said its members have determined that Iraq’s Oil Ministry is “unwilling to negotiate a solution that honors [the companies’] contract sanctity and is attempting to…unilaterally alter the economic framework” of their contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The oil companies said the Oil Ministry’s actions were “not acceptable,” adding that they will not resume exports via Turkey “until there is commitment… to honor our contracts, including payment surety for past and future exports.” Trilateral negotiations between the companies, KRG, and federal authorities aimed at restarting the exports, which have been halted for two years, have faltered despite a February agreement between the KRG and Baghdad to resume oil exports at an initial rate of 185,000 bpd. On March 30, the Iraqi government said that its oil refining capacity is on track to reach a new high of 1.542 million bpd before the end of the year. The announcement was made by Prime Minister Sudani while attending a cornerstone ceremony for a long-delayed project to expand the Maysan oil refinery. The project, along with a similar one in the Baiji refinery complex, is expected to add 140,000 bpd in refining capacity within the next 6–8 months. In other developments, on March 29, Sudani indicated that his government has authorized the Oil Ministry to extend an existing fuel oil supply deal with Lebanon for an additional six months. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: Sadr Sends Mixed Messages About Elections; Committee Presents Proposal to Amend Election Law; Sudani to Visit Turkey

On March 27, news sites circulated a message said to have been issued by Muqtada al-Sadr to his followers urging them to refrain from participating in the next election whether by running as candidates or by voting. In the message, notably dated February 15, Sadr reiterated his former vow to stay out of a political process dominated by “ethnic, sectarian, and partisan interests.” The timing of this message and the fact that it surfaced six weeks after it was supposedly written is rather peculiar. If authentic, this means the message was issued four days before a contradictory February 19 communication in which Sadr had encouraged his followers to update their voter registration records ahead of the country’s next parliamentary elections.

On April 1, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani spoke on the phone with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa to exchange Eid al-Fitr greetings, a statement by Sudani’s office said. During the call, the first direct contact between Sharaa and Sudani, the latter congratulated the Syrian people on the formation of the new government, reaffirming Iraq’s policy in supporting the free choices of the Syrian people. Sudani emphasized the need for an inclusive political process in Syria, affirming Iraq’s support for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and reiterating the opposition to Israeli incursions into Syrian territory. The Iraqi prime minister also expressed Iraq’s interest in economic cooperation and joint action against ISIS, the statement added.

On April 1, the legal committee in the Iraqi parliament proposed a new amendment to the country’s 2023 election law. Under the amendments, proposed by committee member Raed al-Maliki of the Coordination Framework, each province would be considered a single electoral district, except for Baghdad, Basra, and Mosul, which would be divided into two electoral districts. The amendments, according to documents circulating online, also sets a limit on the number of candidates in electoral lists, ensuring it does not exceed the number of seats allocated to each district. The amendment proposes allocating 30% of seats in each district to candidates who receive the most votes and exceed 1.5% of the total, while 70% of seats would be reserved for list candidates. Additionally, the quotient used in the “Saint-Laguë” formula of proportional representation would be adjusted to start at 1.5 instead of 1.7, ostensibly to promote fair competition. The proposal also includes automatic resignation for any parliament member running for local elections, or any governor or provincial council member running for parliamentary elections, to prevent dual positions and the exploitation of incumbent roles for electoral purposes. Sarwa Abdulwahid, head of the New Generation bloc, criticized the proposal, arguing that it complicates calculations and creates ambiguities that can lead to less transparency, and potentially to manipulations, in the allocation of seats. Lawmaker Maliki is the same parliament member who spearheaded the campaign to amend Personal Status Law no. 188.

On April 2, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani sent an official invitation to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to visit the Iraqi capital to discuss bilateral relations, Shafaq reported citing the Lebanese state news agency. The report did not provide details about the expected date of the visit. 

On April 2, Iraq’s ambassador to Turkey said that Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani is planning to visit Turkey within days. Sudani’s visit will focus on building stronger partnerships in trade, transportation and energy through strategic initiatives, especially the Development Road project, according to ambassador Majid al-Lichmawi. 

Sources cited in this section include: Dijla TV, Iraqi PM’s office, ISHM archive, al-Sumaria, Shafaq, NRT, Mawazin. 

SECURITY & HUMANITARIAN: Terrorism Motive Suspected Behind Axe Attack on Assyrian Holiday Parade in Duhok

On March 28, the Security Media Cell reported that Iraqi F-16 jets targeted a group of ISIS militants in an airstrike on their hideout in the desert of Anbar province. The airstrike, which produced secondary explosions indicating it hit weapon stores, killed at least two of the militants, the report added. 

On March 31, security sources in Basra province said that armed clashes erupted among members of al-Bazzoun tribes in al-Zubeir district, southwest of the provincial capital. The fighting killed one individual and injured at least eight others. To the northwest, in Diwaniyah province, five people were reportedly killed and others were wounded when a tribal conflict erupted in al-Hard region of al-Shanafiyah district.  

On March 31, a group of individuals driving in several SUVs attacked an office belonging to former member of parliament Haider al-Mulla in al-Amiriyah neighborhood of west Baghdad, the Baghdad Operations Command said. The attackers smashed the building’s windows and contents and took away the security camera recordings before fleeing the scene, the Command added. The attackers later turned themselves after security forces identified and tracked them, the Command said without revealing the identities of the perpetrators. The incident came amid reports that Mulla was engaged the night before in a heated argument with former parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi in a chat group during which the latter made death threats against the former.

On April 1, security sources in al-Muthanna province said that unidentified individuals attacked a civilian home with a hand grenade. The attack, which happened in the Albu-Risha area of al-Khidr district, caused light damage but there were no reports of casualties. 

On April 1, local sources in Erbil said that an old land mine detonated near the village of Qalrash in the Sedikan subdistrict of the province. The explosion killed a local man who was in the area collecting wild edibles. 

On April 1, an axe-wielding individual attacked a parade of Iraqi Christians celebrating the Akitu holiday, which marks the Assyrian New Year, in the city of Duhok, security sources said. Two victims, a young man and a woman in her 70s, were taken to the hospital for treatment after they sustained serious head wounds, according to medical sources. Security forces arrested the perpetrator and are conducting an investigation to determine the motives. The Kurdistan region’s security council said initial information shows that the attacker is a Syrian national who has endorsed “the terrorist ideology of Daesh,” using the Arabic acronym for ISIS.

On April 2, Iraqi authorities repatriated 681 Iraqi nationals comprising 168 households from al-Hol camp in northeastern Syria, according to a spokesman for the Ministry of Migration and the Displaced. The repatriated families, which have perceived ties to ISIS, were sent to al-Amal Center (also known as al-Jedaa camp) in Ninewa to undergo vetting and rehabilitation before they can return to their home districts. 

On April 3, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said they deployed anti-tank weapon squads along the border with Syria. The deployment is intended to enhance the defensive capabilities of units deployed in this sector, the PMF statement added, without providing further details. 

Sources cited in this section include: INA, Rudaw, Baghdad Today, al-Sumaria, Kurdistan24, AP, Shafaq.

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Oil Companies in Kurdistan Say Baghdad Negotiates in Bad Faith; Oil Refining Capacity to Exceed 1.5 Million BPD

On March 28, a group of oil companies operating in the Kurdistan region of Iraq accused the Iraqi government of taking actions that threaten to prevent the resumption of oil exports from the oil fields the companies operate through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline. In a statement posted online, the Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) said that its members have determined that Iraq’s Oil Ministry is “unwilling to negotiate a solution that honors [the companies’] contract sanctity and is attempting to…unilaterally alter the economic framework” of their contracts with the Kurdistan regional government (KRG).  In its statement, APIKUR said the Oil Ministry’s actions are “not acceptable,” adding that oil companies will not resume exports “until there is commitment… to honor our contracts including payment surety for past and future exports.” Trilateral negotiations between the companies, KRG, and federal authorities aimed at restarting the exports, which have been halted for two years, have faltered despite a February agreement between the KRG and Baghdad to resume oil exports at an initial rate of 185,000 bpd.

On March 29, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani announced in a post on X that his government has authorized the Oil Ministry to supply Lebanon with “fuel for six months.” The Iraqi Prime Minister, who made the announcement after a phone call with Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, did not provide details about the terms of the fuel supply deal. The announcement appears to suggest a renewal of a deal first made in July 2021, under which Iraq has been providing Beirut with fuel oil in exchange for services including health care for Iraqi citizens.

On March 30, the Iraqi government said that the country’s oil refining capacity is on track to reach a new high of 1.542 million barrels per day (bpd) before the end of the year. The announcement was made by Prime minister Sudani while attending a cornerstone ceremony for a project to expand the Maysan oil refinery. The project, announced in February, will add a new oil refining unit to raise the facility’s capacity from 40,000 to 110,000 bpd. The expansion, delayed for a decade since it was first planned in 2014, will be completed within 6-8 months, according to Sudani. Another project to add another 70,000 bpd in refining capacity at the Baiji refinery complex in Salah ad-Din province will be completed within two months, the prime minister added, enabling Iraq to reach the 1.542 million bpd target.  

Sources cited in this section include: APIKUR, ISHM archive, Iraqi PM’s office, INA.

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

Subscribe to our weekly ISHM and have the latest developments in Iraq sent straight to your inbox every Thursday and follow EPIC on Twitter to receive updates throughout the week.