Key Takeaways:

• POLITICS: Sudani Meets World Leaders In New York; KDP Wants Census Postponed In Kirkuk – On September 21, Iraqi PM Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in New York to attend the meetings of the 79th United Nations General Assembly. While there, Sudani met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss bilateral relations, with a focus on the energy sector and the presence of the U.S.-led Global Coalition in Iraq. Sudani also stressed the need to end the war on Gaza and Lebanon, warning that escalation raises the risk of a full-scale war and further widening the conflict zone. Sudani also had talks with senior U.S. Treasury officials concerning economic diversification, financial reforms, and combating money laundering. Sudani later met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for talks that focused on the war in Gaza, counter-terrorism, and cooperation in trade, transportation, and energy. Specifically, Sudani mentioned that his government plans to resolve border security problems “according to the same mechanism used to secure the border with Iran,” in reference to the border security agreement Iraq and Iran signed in March 2023. Sudani met with other world leaders, including the prime ministers of Italy, Lebanon, Somalia, and Greece, the king of Jordan, and the presidents of Yemen, Cyprus, and Kenya. On September 23, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) said that conditions were not suitable for holding a population census in Kirkuk, calling for its postponement. The party’s Kirkuk office chief argued in a statement that while the census was “necessary,” it must be postponed in Kirkuk until article 140 of the constitution, which deals with the status of disputed territories, had been implemented. The KDP official further argued that demographic changes by the Ba’ath Party regime displaced the inhabitants of 4,500 Kurdish villages from Kirkuk to Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, creating an “exceptional” situation in the province. Iraq is scheduled to hold a national population census on November 20, 2024. In other developments, on September 24, several Iraqi sources told Reuters that IRGC commander Esmail Qaani visited Baghdad last week to persuade Coordination Framework leaders to reduce pressure on Sudani, who has been facing accusations related to an eavesdropping scandal that originated in his office. more…
• SECURITY: Iraq Buys Korean Air Defense Systems; Militias Intensify Drone And Missile Attacks On Israel, Brace For Retaliation – On September 19, South Korean defense manufacturer LIG Nex1 said it signed a contract worth approximately $2.8 billion to supply the Iraqi military with an unspecified number of batteries of the medium range M-SAM II or Cheongung II air defense system. Between September 22 – 25, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” a front group for Iran-backed Iraqi militias, launched more than a dozen attacks against military and economic targets across Israel. At least two people were injured at the Israeli port of Eilat during one of those attacks, which employed al-Arfad-type of explosive drones and al-Arqab-type cruise missiles. The Israeli military said it shot down several drones and missiles coming from Iraq before they could reach their targets. The marked increase in the frequency and intensity of the militia attacks followed the serious escalation in violence between Israel and Hezbollah, a key ally of Iran-backed Iraqi militias, and the killing of a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander in an Israeli airstrike near Damascus Airport on September 20. Anticipating counter strikes by Israel, the Kataib Hezbollah militia warned that an attack by Israel inside Iraq would be met with retaliatory action that would target “all facets of American presence” in the country in addition to Israel. In a message posted online, a senior military figure in the group known as Abu Ali al-Askari also urged other “resistance” factions to increase the pace and scale of their operations against Israel, calling the current level of operations “below expectations.” more…
• HUMANITARIAN & HUMAN RIGHTS: Courts To Target “Deviant” Religious Movements With Aggravated Penalties; Iraq Conducts Another Mass Execution – On September 23, Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council instructed courts to take “aggravated legal measures” against members of religious groups that deviate from accepted orthodoxy. In a document circulated by news sites, the Supreme Judicial Council said that several groups and movements have emerged recently that use religions or sects as “cover for their deviant practices that do not conform with the principles, values, or ideas of those religions.” The letter, signed by the head of the Supreme Judicial Council Judge Faeq Zaidan, argues that some of these groups have become a “danger” to the lives of followers of certain religions or sects, requiring the courts to employ stricter penalties. Zaidan did not mention any specific groups or religions by name. On September 25, Iraqi authorities executed 21 prisoners at the Nasiriyah Central Prison in Dhi-Qar province. The prisoners were all convicted on terrorism charges. Rights groups have urged the Iraqi government in recent months to halt executions amid lack of transparency and reports that neither the prisoners nor their lawyers or families were notified in advance. UN human rights experts expressed “deep concern” about these executions, saying the lack of advance notice constitutes “a form of ill-treatment, which renders the subsequent execution contrary to article 7 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.” more…
• ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Oil Exports Down 71,000 BPD In August; Ministries Approve Winter Agricultural Plan – On September 26, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that August oil exports averaged 3.414 million barrels per day (bpd), about 71,000 bpd below July. The Oil Ministry again neglected to mention the total revenue generated by the exports and the average price at which the oil was sold. Nearly all of the exports came from fields in southern and central Iraq while piped exports from Kirkuk and the Kurdistan region remained suspended. On September 26, Iraq’s Agriculture and Water Resources Ministries approved a winter agricultural plan covering 6.2 million dunams of farmland and orchards (a dunam equals 0.247 acres). The plan includes 3.1 million dunams of farms and orchards irrigated by surface water and another 3.1 million dunams that depend on groundwater from wells. This is a slightly larger agricultural plan than last winter’s, when the ministries approved 1.5 million dunams for irrigation by surface water and four million dunams for irrigation by groundwater from wells. The plan does not appear to account for crops that will depend on rainfall. In other developments, on September 22, the KRG Finance Ministry said it deposited more than IQD 91 billion (approximately $70 million) in the Central Bank account of the federal Finance Ministry as remittance for non-petroleum revenue generated in May 2024. more…

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For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

POLITICS: Sudani Meets World Leaders In New York; KDP Wants Census Postponed In Kirkuk

On September 21, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in New York to attend the meetings of the 79th United Nations General Assembly. While in New York, Sudani met with the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to discuss bilateral relations, with a focus on the energy sector and the presence of the U.S.-led Global Coalition in Iraq, and the recent escalation in Lebanon. Sudani stressed the need to end the war on Gaza and Lebanon, warning that escalation raises the risk of a full-scale war and further widening the conflict zone. Sudani also had talks with the U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo during which the two sides reviewed Baghdad’s efforts and plans for economic diversification, financial reforms, and combating money laundering. According to Sudani, Iraq has been vetting and conducting 95% of its foreign currency transfers, a major source of money laundering concerns for Washington, through a designated electronic platform and will next shift to using correspondent bank relations in line with the goal of enhancing the capabilities of Iraqi banks to meet global standards. Then on Thursday, Sudani met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for talks that focused on the war in Gaza, counter-terrorism and cooperation in trade, transportation, and energy. Specifically, Sudani mentioned that his government plans to resolve border security problems “according to the same mechanism used to secure the border with Iran,” in reference to the border security agreement Iraq and Iran signed in March 2023. During his visit to New York, Sudani met with other world leaders, including the prime ministers of Italy, Lebanon (offering additional humanitarian aid), Somalia, and Greece, the King of Jordan, and the presidents of Yemen, Cyprus, and Kenya.

On September 23, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) said that conditions were not suitable for holding a population census in Kirkuk, calling for its postponement. The party’s Kirkuk office chief, Mohammed Kamal, argued in a statement that while the census was “necessary,” it must be delayed in Kirkuk until article 140 of the constitution, which deals with the status of disputed territories, had been implemented. The KDP official further argued that demographic changes by the Ba’ath Party regime displaced the inhabitants of 4,500 Kurdish villages from Kirkuk to Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, creating an “exceptional” situation in the province. Iraq is scheduled to hold a national population census on November 20, 2024. The last time Iraq conducted a census was in 1997, and that census excluded the three provinces of the Kurdistan region. 

On September 24, Reuters reported that last week’s visit to Iraq by he commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Esmail Qaani, had the goal of persuading Iraqi political leaders to reduce pressure on Prime Minister Sudani, who has been facing accusations related to an eavesdropping scandal that originated in his office. Seven Iraqi sources confirmed that Qaani made the request, which aimed at stabilizing the Baghdad government, an important ally of Tehran’s, during the escalating regional conflict. Specifically, the Iranian general asked leaders of the Coordination Framework to avoid undermining Sudani, after a number of his senior aides were accused of running a spying and extortion ring that targeted top government officials and politicians. 

On September 24, the foreign ministers of Iraq, Egypt, and Jordan warned in a joint statement that Israel’s military escalation against Lebanon threatened to plunge the region into an all-out war. The three ministers, meeting on the sidelines of the General Assembly meeting in New York City, urged the United Nations Security Council to act swiftly to end the war in Gaza and Lebanon. 

Sources cited in this section include: INA, Iraqi PM’s office, ISHM archive, Rudaw, Reuters, al-Hurra.

SECURITY: Iraq Buys Korean Air Defense Systems; Militias Intensify Drone And Missile Attacks On Israel, Brace For Retaliation

On September 19, South Korean defense manufacturer LIG Nex1 said it signed a contract worth approximately $2.8 billion to supply the Iraqi military with an unspecified number of batteries of the M-SAM II or Cheongung II air defense system. With this deal, Iraq will become the fourth country to operate the medium range missile system after South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

On September 20, the Kataib Hezbollah militia said that one of its senior commanders was killed in an Israeli airstrike that targeted a vehicle near Damascus International Airport. The militia group said its slain member, named Abu Haider al-Khafaji, had been working in the Syrian capital as a “security advisor,” without providing further details about his role. Khafaji’s driver was seriously injured in the airstrike. 

On September 22, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” a front group for Iran-backed Iraqi militias, claimed that it conducted five new attacks against unspecified targets in various parts of Israel using al-Arfad-type of explosive drones and al-Arqab-type cruise missiles. The Israeli military confirmed that it intercepted and shot down cruise missiles and drones coming from Iraq before they could enter Israeli airspace. On the following day, the militia group claimed that it also attacked an observation outpost belonging to the Israeli military’s Golani brigade using explosive drones. Brief videos posted by the group appeared to show drones being launched at night from an undisclosed location. Then on Tuesday, the group said it attacked another Israeli target in the occupied Golan heights using explosive drones, without providing additional details. Later on the same day, the group said it launched more explosive drones against an Israeli target in the Jordan River valley. The attacks continued on September 25, with the militias claiming to have launched cruise missiles and explosive drones against three unspecified targets in Israel’s north and the Golan Heights. The Lebanese Hezbollah affiliated al-Mayadeen reported that one of the strikes caused a fire to erupt inside an Israeli military base. Also on Wednesday, the militia group launched explosive drones in an attack on the Israeli city of Eilat. One of the drones l struck the city’s port of Eilat, injuring two people, while a second drone was intercepted over the Red Sea, the Israeli military confirmed.  

On September 25, the Kataib Hezbollah militia warned that an attack by Israel against Iran-backed militias inside Iraq would be met with retaliatory action that would target Israel and “all facets of American presence” in the country. In a message posted online, a senior military figure in the group known as Abu Ali al-Askari claimed the group has noticed increased aerial activity by the U.S. and Israeli military over Iraq that pointed to possible military action inside Iraq. The militia commander urged other “resistance” factions to increase the pace and scale of their operations against Israel, calling the current level of operations “below expectations.”  

On September 25, the Security Media Cell reported that Iraqi F-16 jets struck a cell of five ISIS militants after security forces tracked them to a hideout in the Wadi Zghaytoun region of Kirkuk province. The airstrike destroyed the hideout, killing the militants and destroying various weapons and supplies that were present at the site. 

Sources cited in this section include: Reuters, Baghdad Today, al-Sumaria, Ultra Iraq, al-Hurra, Rudaw, Shafaq, The Times of Israel, INA. 

HUMANITARIAN & HUMAN RIGHTS: Courts To Target “Deviant” Religious Movements With Aggravated Penalties; Iraq Conducts Another Mass Execution

On September 23, the Supreme Judicial Council of Iraq issued instructions to Iraqi courts to take “aggravated legal measures” against members of religious groups that deviate from orthodoxy. In a document circulated by news sites, the Supreme Judicial Council said that several groups and movements have emerged recently that use religions or sects as “cover for their deviant practices that do not conform with the principles, values, or ideas of those religions.” The letter, signed by the head of the Supreme Judicial Council Judge Faeq Zaidan, argues that some of these groups have become a danger to the lives of certain religions or sects, requiring the courts to employ stricter penalties. Zaidan did not mention any specific groups or religions by name.

On September 25, Iraqi authorities executed 21 prisoners in another controversial mass execution at the Nasiriyah Central Prison in Dhi-Qar province, two security sources told Reuters. The prisoners were all convicted on terrorism charges. Rights groups have urged the Iraqi government in recent months to halt executions amid lack of transparency and reports that neither the prisoners nor their lawyers or families were notified in advance. In January, UN human rights experts expressed “deep concern” about “mass executions” in Iraq’s prison system. The practice, the experts noted, constitutes “a form of ill-treatment, which renders the subsequent execution contrary to article 7 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.” Wednesday’s was the first confirmed report of a mass execution incident since May, when 11 inmates were executed in the same facility.

Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, Reuters, ISHM archive. 

ECONOMY & CLIMATE: Oil Exports Down 71,000 BPD In August; Ministries Approve Winter Agricultural Plan

On September 20, Iraq’s state-owned Rafidain Bank announced that 42 of its branches across the country, including 22 in Baghdad, were now operating using an integrated banking system as part of reform efforts aimed at transitioning from paper-based operations towards fully digitized systems. Last year, the Iraqi government contracted Ernst and Young to help reform and modernize the country’s banking sector, starting with the state-owned Rafidain Bank. A government statement said at the time that the global accounting and advisory company presented an eight-month plan involving a comprehensive assessment of the bank’s operations and introducing structural reforms and modern technologies to create a bank “capable of meeting the demands of contemporary global banking conditions.” 

On September 22, the KRG Finance Ministry said the KRG has deposited a sum of more than IQD 91 billion (approximately $70 million) in the Central Bank account of the federal Finance Ministry as remittance for non-petroleum revenue generated in May 2024. This is the fourth report since May of the KRG handing over a share of revenue generated in the Kurdistan region to the federal government, a long-contested provision in Iraqi budget laws.

On September 26, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that crude oil exports during August totaled more than 105.8 million barrels per day (bpd), for an average of 3.414 million bpd, which is about 71,000 bpd lower than exports in July. In its statement, which again came almost a month behind schedule, the Ministry of Oil neglected to mention the total revenue generated by the August exports and the average price at which the oil was sold. Nearly all of the oil produced came from fields in southern and central Iraq and was exported through the ports of Basra, while small amounts averaging 9,220 bpd were exported by trucks to Jordan. Exports from the northern fields in Kirkuk, as well as fields under the control of the Kurdistan regional government, remained suspended. Earlier this month, the Oil Ministry said it began reducing its oil exports to an average of 3.3 million bpd on August 27 in order to comply with OPEC+ supply cut agreements.

On September 26, Iraq’s Agriculture and Water Resources Ministries said they agreed to approve a winter agricultural plan covering 6.2 million dunams of farmland and orchards (a dunam equals 0.247 acres). The plan, which took into consideration expected incoming water resources and reserves in Iraq’s dams and reservoirs, includes 3.1 million dunams of farms and orchards to be irrigated by surface water, and another 3.1 million dunams of farms that would depend on groundwater from wells. This is a slightly larger agricultural plan than last winter’s, when the ministries approved 1.5 million dunams for irrigation by surface water and four million dunams for irrigation by well water. The plan does not appear to account for crops that will depend on rainfall.  

Sources cited in this section include: Ultra Iraq, ISHM archive, Kurdistan24, Iraq’s Oil Ministry, INA. 

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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