Key Takeaways:

• Government Rejects Sadr’s Call To Expel The U.S. Ambassador; Militia Commander Says Decision Has Been Made To Fight U.S. Forces – On October 27, Muqtada al-Sadr called on the Iraqi government and parliament to close the U.S. embassy in the country over Washington’s support for Israel. Sadr, however, stressed that U.S. diplomats should be protected from harm by “shameless militias that seek to undermine Iraq’s security.” Sadr’s call resonated with a group of 32 lawmakers, who requested an extraordinary, closed session of parliament to discuss “expelling the American ambassador, closing the embassy, and suspending diplomatic relations with all states” that support Israel. The government of PM Sudani rejected Sadr’s call, arguing that taking such a drastic step would damage relations with other Western nations and “destroy” the country. Similarly, the Coordination Framework (CF) rejected Sadr’s call, saying it was not against the presence of Washington’s diplomatic mission. Commentators close to the CF accused Sadr of trying to use the CF as “cannon fodder” in a conflict with the U.S. On November 1, the commander of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba militia, Akram al-Kabi, said that the “Iraqi Islamic resistance” had decided to “liberate Iraq with military force,” adding that there would be “no stopping, no truce, and no retreat.” On the following day, the chief of staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), convened a meeting of PMF commanders to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas and issued orders to place all PMF units on high alert “to be ready to deal with any emergency in the coming days.” In other developments, on October 26, the Iraqi government said that the KDP had decided to give the contested building of its former Kirkuk office, the control of which had sparked deadly violence in September, to the city’s university as a gift. On October 31, Iraq’s Electoral Commission said it certified a final list of 5,915 candidates to compete in the December provincial elections. more…
• Drone, Rocket Attacks On U.S. Forces Continue; PM Sudani Replaces Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Chief – Between October 27 – November 1, an Iraqi military base in Anbar hosting U.S. force was attacked at least 4 times with drones and rockets fired by a group called “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” believed to be a front for Iran-backed militias. There were no reports of casualties in the attacks on Ain al-Asad. Iraqi militia groups also claimed responsibility for 3 additional attacks on bases hosting U.S. military personnel across the border in Syria. In related developments, on October 26, U.S. aircraft conducted “precision self-defense strikes” near Albu-Kamal in response to “mostly unsuccessful attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.” The same area was the scene of additional airstrikes by unidentified military aircraft that targeted a convoy of ten trucks that had just crossed from Iraq to Syria. The escalation in violence came after the commanders of several Iraqi militias had threatened to target U.S. interests over Washington’s support for Israel in its fight with Hamas. On November 1, PM Sudani removed the chief of Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS), General Abdul-Wahab al-Saidi, from command, and appointed Lieutenant General Karim Aboud Mohammed as his replacement. Sudani also replaced the commander of Baghdad operations. The new CTS chief had served in various senior positions within the force, including as CTS chief of operations and head of the 2nd Special Operation Command. In other developments, on October 30, PM Sudani inaugurated the newly built Iraqi air force college at the Suwaira air base in Wasit province. On November 2, a senior Peshmerga commander said he reached a “suitable agreement” with the Iraqi army regarding the management of security outposts recently vacated by the PKK in the Qara Chogh Mountain area of Makhmour. A dispute over control of the vacated outposts escalated into a deadly shootout last week that left at least four dead. more…
• UNITAD Delivers Final Report About ISIS Use Of WMDs Against Minority Community – On October 31, the United Nations Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Daesh (UNITAD) presented the head of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council with a final report of its investigation into the use of chemical weapons by ISIS militants against the minority Shia Turkmen minority in the town of Tuzkhormatu. The head of UNITAD described the investigation into the use of weapons of mass destruction by ISIS as “ground-breaking and sets the sediments for unprecedented judicial avenues,” adding that the handover “marks a pivotal milestone in UNITAD’s path towards promoting accountability for ISIL international crimes in Iraq.” In recent weeks, rights groups and members of the Yazidi community have raised concerns about the upcoming termination of UNITAD’s work in Iraq and what it means for their aspirations for justice and accountability. Iraqi authorities have apparently expressed frustration with UNITAD for refusing to share evidence gathered by the team, which in turn was worried that convictions by Iraqi courts could lead to the death penalty, which the UN opposes. In other developments, on November 1, the Iraqi Ministry for Migration said that a group of 1,150 internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Iraq’s Yazidi community had returned voluntarily from IDP camps in Duhok to their areas of origin in Sinjar. This is the first group of IDPs to return to Sinjar since September 1, when 179 of them made the journey from the Duhok camps to their home district. more…
• Oil Exports, Revenue Up In October; Mobile Operators Ordered To Cut Interconnections With Korek; Baghdad Takes New Steps To Address Rising Exchange Rate – On November 1, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that crude oil exports during October averaged 3.533 million barrels per day (bpd), about 95,000 bpd higher than September. The October exports generated $9.66 billion in revenue, up about $150 million from September, even as Iraq sold its oil at an average price of $88.26 per barrel, about $4.20 below the previous month’s average. Exports from Kirkuk and the Kurdistan region remained suspended despite repeated announcements by Turkish and Iraqi officials in recent months that the resumption of exports was imminent. On November 1, Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission (CMC) ordered mobile telecommunication companies AsiaCell and Atheer to sever interconnections with the third operator, Korek Telecom. In a letter circulated by Iraqi news sites, the CMC said it took its decision based on the expiration of Korek’s license in August of 2022, the company’s failure to obey rulings issued by the Supreme Judicial Council, and because Korek was “not serious about paying the large sums owed” to the Iraqi state. On November 1, the Iraqi government said it was considering a decision to sell U.S. dollars directly to the public (as opposed to banks) in an effort to control rising exchange rates. Meanwhile, the Trade Ministry said it would begin selling basic food staples directly to consumers to help control rising food prices. On Thursday, the exchange rate on the parallel market was around IQD 1,622 to $1, approximately 23% higher than the official rate of IQD 1,320 to $1 set by the Central Bank. In other developments, on October 28, Jordanian energy officials said that tanker trucks carrying crude oil from Iraq had arrived at the kingdom’s Zarqa refinery after their journey was temporarily halted at the border by Iraqi pro-militia protesters. On November 2, Russian oil company Lukoil said it signed an addendum to its contract to develop Iraq’s West Qurna-2 oil field, extending its term until 2045. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

Government Rejects Sadr’s Call To Expel The U.S. Ambassador; Militia Commander Says Decision Has Been Made To Fight U.S. Forces

On October 26, the Iraqi government said that the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) had decided to give the contested building of its former headquarters in Kirkuk to the city’s university as a gift. Government spokesman Basim al-Awadi said Baghdad welcomed the “wise gesture” by the KDP, underscoring the need to reinforce coexistence and stability in the disputed city. Some Arab and Turkmen political figures in Kiruk welcomed the move by the KDP too, and credited KDP leader Masoud Barzani with defusing the tense situation. The building in question was a main factor in deadly violence that erupted in Kirkuk nearly two months ago. The clashes, which involved KDP supporters, Arab and Turkmen locals, and security forces, left at least four dead and 15 wounded. For more on that violent episode and the building’s history, please refer to ISHM no. 414. 

On October 27, Muqtada al-Sadr called on the Iraqi government and parliament to make a decision to close the United States embassy in the country to protest Washington’s “unlimited support for the Zionist terrorists against Gaza.” Sadr, however, stressed that U.S. diplomats and embassy personnel should be protected from any harm by “shameless militias that seek to undermine Iraq’s security.” Sadr warned that he would take other, unspecified measures should the government and parliament ignore his call, while at the same time telling his followers that unilateral actions or the use of weapons were strictly prohibited. Sadr’s call resonated with a group of 32 lawmakers, who presented a motion to hold an extraordinary closed session of parliament to discuss the questions of “expelling the American ambassador, closing the embassy, and suspending diplomatic relations with all states that support the Zionist entity.” The government of Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani rejected Sadr’s call, arguing that taking such a drastic step would “destroy” the country. Commenting on Sadr’s call, government spokesman Basim al-Awadi argued that the diplomatic presence of all Western nations “depends on the presence of the United States,” adding that, “not a single Western country would remain in the country”  should the U.S. leave Iraq. Similarly, the Coordination Framework (CF) also rejected Sadr’s call. Senior CF representative Ali al-Fatlawi argued that while CF has problems with U.S. military presence, the group was not against the presence of Washington’s diplomatic mission or those of European nations. Commentators close to the CF and Iran-backed militias accused Sadr of trying to use the CF as “cannon fodder” in a conflict with the U.S. and  described Sadr’s message as a trap meant to embarrass CF leaders and make them accountable for the economic fallout from destabilizing Iraq’s relations with Washington.

On October 31, a spokesperson for the Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC) said the Commission had certified the final list of candidates who will compete in the upcoming provincial elections in December. The 5,915 candidates include 4,258 men and 1,657 women, spokesperson Jumana al-Ghalai said, adding that 16 million voters who have biometric voter registration and cards will be able to vote out of 23 million total eligible voters. The certified candidates (full list can be accessed here) have 45 days to campaign, from November 1 to December 15. 

On November 1, the commander of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba militia, Akram al-Kabi, said that the “Iraqi Islamic resistance” had decided to “liberate Iraq with military force,” adding that there would be “no stopping, no truce, and no retreat.” Kabi, who was among the first commanders of Iran-backed militias to threaten attacks on U.S. forces after fighting broke out between Hamas and Israel on October 7, made his latest proclamation as Iraqi militias launched new attacks with drones and rockets on military bases hosting U.S. military personnel in Iraq as well as eastern Syria. On the following day, the chief of staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), convened a meeting of PMF commanders to discuss the war between Israel and Hamas. The PMF chief, Abdul-Aziz al-Mohammadawi (aka Abu Fadak), issued orders to place all PMF units on high alert “to be ready to deal with any emergency in the coming days.” Meanwhile, Hadi al-Amiri, the Coordination Framework politician and veteran commander of the powerful Badr militia, used a less confrontational language in his call for ending U.S. military presence in Iraq. In a statement, Amiri said it was time for U.S. forces to leave Iraq because “there is no longer need or reason for their staying” in Iraq, and urged the government to “take all necessary measures to set a serious, specific, and short timeline” for the departure of International Coalition forces from Iraq. 

Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, Shafaq, Reuters, ISHM archive, Social Media, Ultra Iraq, Rudaw. 

Drone, Rocket Attacks On U.S. Forces Continue; PM Sudani Replaces Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Chief

On October 27, Iraqi militias launched new attacks on Iraqi military bases hosting U.S. military personnel. A message posted by “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq” said the group, believed to be a front for Iran-backed militias, attacked the Ain al-Asad base in Anbar with an explosive drone, which was intercepted before it could reach its target. On October 29, Iraqi militias attacked al-Shaddadi base in Syria’s Hasakah province, which also hosts U.S. personnel, using two explosive drones. On the following day, Iraqi security sources said Ain al-Asad was attacked again with two explosive drones, adding that the aircraft were deflected from the base by the base’s defensive jamming systems. The base was also attacked with a volley of four Katyusha-type rockets that were launched from the Tharthar region, Iraqi security sources said in a subsequent statement. On the same day, Iraqi militias also attacked the so-called Conoco base in Syria’s Deir al-Zour province with, reportedly, 15 rockets. Then on October 31, the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq” claimed responsibility for yet another attack with two explosive drones on Ain al-Asad. Finally, on November 1, the “Islamic Resistance” attacked al-Tanf base in eastern Syria with two drones, but they were intercepted by air defenses at the base. It was unclear whether these attacks, 23 in total between Iraq and Syria since October 17, had caused any casualties or significant damage at the bases. In related developments, on October 26, U.S. military aircraft conducted airstrikes against two targets linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the “precision self-defense strikes are a response to a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.” The same area was the scene of additional airstrikes by unidentified military aircraft that targeted a convoy of ten trucks that had just crossed the border from Iraq to Syria near the town of Albu-Kamal, Iraqi security sources said. The escalation in violence came after the commanders of several Iraqi militias, including Kataib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahil al-Haq, Badr, and al-Nujaba, had threatened to target U.S. interests if Washington decided to intervene in the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas militants. 

On October 28, Ninewa police said that a legacy improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in the town of Badush, northwest of Mosul. The explosion struck a child who later died as a result of his injuries. On the same day, to the southeast, in Diyala province, two teenage boys were killed in an accidental grenade explosion in the Khreisan River region, northeast of Baquba, according to local security sources. 

On October 30, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani inaugurated the newly built Iraqi air force college at the Suwaira air base in Wasit province. Speaking at the inauguration ceremony, Sudani said his government made completing this much-delayed project one of its highest defense sector priorities, adding that 72% of the air base and college infrastructure has been completed, allowing the facility to start training Iraq’s future military pilots. 

On November 1, a senior Iraqi military spokesman said the Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani had issued orders to replace several top military commanders. Most notably, Sudani removed the chief of Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS), General Abdul-Wahab al-Saidi, from command, and appointed Lieutenant General Karim Aboud Mohammed as his replacement. Sudani also appointed Major General Walid Khalifa Majid as commander of Baghdad operations, replacing General Ahmed Salim Bahjat, the spokesman, Yahya Rasoul, added. The new CTS chief had served in various senior positions within the elite force, including as CTS chief of operations and head of the 2nd Special Operation Command. 

On November 2, a senior Peshmerga commander said that the Iraqi army and Peshmerga reached a “suitable agreement” regarding the management of security outposts in the Qara Chogh Mountain area of Makhmour. The Peshmerga commander, Serwan Barzani, said he and senior Iraqi army commanders inspected the area and agreed to identify new locations for the outposts, without providing further details. The outposts in question were recently vacated by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, who announced on October 19 that it had pulled its fighters from the area. A dispute between the Peshmerga and Iraqi army over who should control the vacated outposts escalated into a deadly shootout last week that left at least four dead, including two high-ranking Peshmerga officers. 

Sources cited in this section include: Shafaq, al-Hurra, Mawazin, Reuters, UTV, IHSM archive, NINA, INA, Rudaw. 

UNITAD Delivers Final Report About ISIS Use Of WMDs Against Minority Community

On October 31, the United Nations Investigative Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes Committed by Daesh (UNITAD) presented Iraqi authorities with a final report of its investigation into the use of chemical weapons by ISIS militants against the minority Shia Turkmen minority in the town of Tuzkhormatu. The report, based on three years of investigations into the March 8, 2016 attack, was handed to the head of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, Faeq Zaidan. The head of UNITAD, Christian Ritscher, described the investigation into the use of weapons of mass destruction by the terror group as “ground-breaking and sets the sediments for unprecedented judicial avenues,” adding that the handover “marks a pivotal milestone in UNITAD’s path towards promoting accountability for ISIL international crimes in Iraq.” In September, the UN Security Council voted to extend UNITAD’s mandate for only one more year. The resolution mentioned that the Baghdad government had asked that UNITAD investigators hand over the evidence to the Iraqi authorities so they could pursue ISIS members who committed crimes and those who assisted and financed them. Since then, rights groups and members of the Yazidi community have raised concerns about the upcoming termination of UNITAD’s work in Iraq and what it means for their aspirations for justice and accountability. Iraqi authorities have apparently expressed frustration with UNITAD for refusing to share evidence gathered by the team, which in turn was worried that convictions by Iraqi courts could lead to the death penalty, which the UN opposes. 

On November 1, the Iraqi Ministry for Migration and the Displaced said that a new group of 1,150 internally displaced persons (IDPs) from Iraq’s Yazidi community had returned voluntarily from IDP camps in Duhok province to their districts of origin in Sinjar. In a statement, the ministry said it provided transports to help the returnees move their belongings from the camps to Sinjar, adding that additional groups of returnees would arrive in Sinjar in the next few days. This is the first group of IDPs to return to Sinjar since September 1, when 179 of them made the journey from the Duhok camps to their home district. 

Sources cited in this section include: ReliefWeb, ISHM archive, Amwaj Media, INA.

Oil Exports, Revenue Up In October; Mobile Operators Ordered To Cut Interconnections With Korek; Baghdad Takes New Steps To Address Rising Exchange Rate

On October 27, Iraq’s Transportation Ministry said that Iraqi Airways would resume direct flights to several European airports using codeshare flights. According to Transportation Minister Razzaq al-Sadawi, the national carrier will start offering seven flights a week between Baghdad and airports in Berlin, Copenhagen, Frankfurt, Munich, and Dusseldorf. The announcement about codeshare flights, which are scheduled to commence November 10, comes as Iraq continues to seek the lifting of a European ban that was imposed on Iraqi Airways due to various flight safety concerns. 

On October 28, Jordanian energy officials said that about three dozen tanker trucks carrying crude oil from Iraq had arrived at the kingdom’s refinery at Zarqa after their journey was temporarily halted at the border by Iraqi pro-militia protesters. Two days earlier, supporters of Iran-backed militias who had gathered at the Trebil border crossing with Jordan to protest the Israeli blockade on Gaza prevented the trucks from reaching Jordan. The militia supporters threatened that they would not allow Iraqi oil to reach a country that had normalized its relations with Israel. 

On October 31, the Iranian Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade, Ali Abadi, visited Baghdad and met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani. During the talks, Sudani expressed Iraq’s interest in cooperation with Iran in the production of petrochemicals and fertilizers, a statement by the prime minister’s office said. Sudani and the Iranian minister also discussed the possibility of using local currencies in commercial and financial transactions between Iraq and Iran for added flexibility in conducting business, the statement added. 

On November 1, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said that crude oil exports during October totaled more than 109.05 million barrels, for an average of 3.533 million barrels per day (bpd), which is about 95,000 bpd higher than exports in September. The October exports generated $9.66 billion in revenue, an increase of about $150 million from the $9.49  billion achieved in September. Iraq sold its crude oil at an average price of approximately $88.26 per barrel, about $4.20 below the previous month’s average of $92.05 per barrel. The vast majority of the October exports were shipped from fields in southern and central Iraq through the ports of Basra, while small amounts averaging 14,990 bpd were exported to Jordan by trucks. The Qayyarah oil field in Ninewa, which resumed operations in May, contributed about 33,200 bpd to exports. Meanwhile, exports from the northern fields in Kirkuk, as well as fields under the control of the Kurdistan regional government (KRG), remained suspended, despite repeated announcements by Turkish and Iraqi officials in recent months that resuming exports was imminent. 

On November 1, Iraq’s Communications and Media Commission (CMC) ordered AsiaCell and Atheer, two of the country’s mobile telecommunication companies, to sever their interconnections with the third operator, Korek Telecom. In a letter circulated by Iraqi news sites, the CMC said it took its decision based on the expiration of Korek’s license in August of 2022, the company’s failure to obey rulings issued by the Supreme Judicial Council, and because Korek was “not serious about paying the large sums owed.” The CMC letter adds that the interconnections shall remain severed until Korek pays the balance in question. Last week, Korek called on parliament and Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani to intervene in its dispute with the CMC after the latter banned the sale of new Korek sim cards and threatened to sever Korek’s interconnections with other mobile operators within 10 days  unless the company pays $800 million in damages awarded by an Iraqi court in April. In its appeal, Korek said it was ready to reach a settlement with the CMC but the latter was refusing to negotiate.

On November 1, the official spokesman of the Iraqi government said that Baghdad was considering a decision to start selling U.S. dollars directly to the public in an effort to control rising exchange rates. The spokesman, Basim al-Awadi, said the government would move in that direction if profiteering from variance between the official and parallel markets continued to drive the exchange rate up. The news comes as the country deals with rising exchange rates that have diminished the purchasing power of low income Iraqis. In related news, the Trade Ministry announced this week that it would begin selling basic food staples directly to consumers and retailers to help control rising food prices. According to a ministry spokesman, the State Enterprise for Food Stuff would start selling poultry, eggs, flour, sugar, vegetable oils, milk, and tomato paste through seven outlets in Baghdad and the provinces of Ninewa, Maysan, Karbala, and Salah ad-Din. The campaign would continue for a week, or until stability in prices is achieved, the spokesman added.  As of writing on Thursday, the exchange rate on the parallel market was hovering around IQD 1,622 to $1, approximately 23% higher than the official rate of IQD 1,320 to $1 set by the Central Bank.

On November 2, Russian oil company Lukoil said that it had signed an addendum to its contract with Iraq’s Oil Ministry for the development of the West Qurna-2 oil field. The addendum reportedly extends the term of the development agreement until 2045, and covers additional investments by the company to reach a production target of 800,000 bpd, roughly doubling the field’s current production capacity.

Sources cited in this section include: Mawazin, Rudaw, ISHM archive, Iraqi PM’s office, Iraq’s Oil Ministry, NRT, al-Sumaria, INA.

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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