Key Takeaways:

• Iraqi Militias Threaten Attacks On U.S. Interests If Washington Intervenes In Israel-Hamas Conflict; PM Sudani Meets Putin In Moscow – On October 9, Hadi al-Amiri, the senior leader in the Coordination Framework and commander of the powerful Badr militia, threatened to target U.S. interests if Washington decided to intervene in the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas militants. Other Iran-backed militia leaders made similar threats, including al-Nujaba commander Akram al-Kabi, Asaib Ahl al-Haq commander Qais al-Khazali, and Kataib Hezbollah commander Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, who said his militia would use rockets, drones, and special forces to strike U.S. bases and interests, as well as “known locations of the Zionist entity and its agents.” Officially, the Iraqi government issued a statement following the eruption of violence between Hamas and Israel saying that Iraq “stands with the Palestinian people in their pursuit of their full legitimate rights.” The statement underscored that “oppression and the violation of these rights cannot produce lasting peace,” and called for an emergency meeting of the Arab League. During talks with the Saudi Foreign Minister, who visited Baghdad this week, PM Sudani affirmed Iraq’s commitment to the “security of the territories of neighboring countries,” adding that Iraq refuses to allow its territory to be used to launch attacks on anyone. Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr called on his followers to organize a million-man march in Baghdad to show their solidarity with the Palestinian people. On October 10, PM Sudani arrived in Moscow for a two-day trip and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sudani’s talks centered around enhancing bilateral cooperation, with a focus on energy and the operations of Russian oil companies in Iraq. Sudani also asked Putin to use Russia’s influence as a permanent member of the UN Security Council to intervene to prevent further Israeli military operations against Gaza. more…
• Rockets Hit Refugee Camp; Iran Says Iraq Not Doing Enough To Implement Border Security Agreement; Candidate Steps Down Due To Threats – On October 7, rockets struck the Makhmour refugee camp, which hosts Kurdish refugees from Turkey, killing a woman and two children, according to local sources. On October 8, the chief of staff of the Iranian military told the visiting Iraqi Interior Minister that Iraq’s efforts to secure the border region were “good but at the same time insufficient.” The Iranian commander explained that Iraq’s effort to relocate opposition groups hostile to Tehran away from the border was “commendable, but we expect their complete disarmament in accordance with the agreement.” The remarks come after Iraqi officials made assertions that Iranian opposition groups had been “moved away from the border and disarmed.” On October 8, a candidate in the upcoming provincial elections from Diyala province said she was withdrawing her candidacy because “corrupt” powers in the province had threatened to kill her son if she didn’t pull from the race. more…
• Iraq, Turkmenistan Move Closer To Finalizing Gas Deal; Dinar Drops Amid Confusion About Dollar Deposits – On October 6, Iraq and Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding for natural gas sales to meet Iraq’s fuel demand for power generation. A government statement said that an Iraqi delegation would head to Turkmenistan on the 25th of October to sign the gas sales agreements. This week, Iraq also decided to move forward with the construction of a permanent facility at al-Faw port to receive and process imported liquified natural gas, possibly from Qatar. On October 8, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) warned private banks against refusing to allow customers to withdraw U.S. dollars they had previously deposited at those banks. The CBI said it received numerous complaints from customers who said the banks denied their withdrawal requests citing alleged CBI guidance. The situation unfolded after the CBI said last week that it would ban cash withdrawals in U.S. dollars starting January 1, 2024. The confusion caused by this announcement, and reports that the U.S. declined an Iraqi request for $1 billion in cash from the country’s reserves, have sent the local currency’s value down. By Wednesday, the exchange rate on the parallel market had jumped to around IQD 1,630 to $1, before pulling back slightly to around IQD 1,600 to $1 on Thursday. In other developments, on October 8, senior Iraqi oil officials told Reuters that Turkey had yet to send an official notice to Baghdad regarding its readiness to resume northern Iraqi oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan. On October 9, KRG officials said that a joint financial auditing committee had begun reviewing the records of public sector pensioners as part of requirements set by the federal government to continue disbursing funds to cover public sector salaries and pensions. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

Iraqi Militias Threaten Attacks On U.S. Interests If Washington Intervenes In Israel-Hamas Conflict; PM Sudani Meets Putin In Moscow

On October 7, the Iraqi government issued a statement following the attack by Hamas militants on Israel and subsequent retaliatory attacks by the Israeli military on Gaza. Government spokesman Basim al-Awadi described Iraq’s position regarding the Palestinian issue as “steadfast,” and that Iraq “stands with the Palestinian people in their pursuit of their full legitimate rights.” The statement underscored that “oppression and the violation of these rights cannot produce lasting peace,” and called for an emergency meeting of the Arab League.  Over the following days, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani discussed the disturbing developments between Israel and Gaza with senior Arab leaders and officials. On October 8, Sudani had a phone call with Jordan’s King Abdulah II in which they discussed “urgent action to stop the escalation and working together to stop ongoing violations by the occupation authority” against Palestinians, emphasizing the need to establish an independent Palestinian state. On the following day, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal Bin Farhan arrived in Baghdad and met with his Iraqi counterpart Fuad Hussein and later with Sudani. During their talks, Sudani affirmed Iraq’s commitment to the “security of the territories of neighboring countries,” adding that Iraq refuses to allow its territory to be used to launch attacks on anyone, a statement by Sudani’s office said. The remarks were likely meant to assuage regional concerns about threats made by Iraqi militias against U.S. interests in the region (see more below). On the same day, Sudani discussed the recent eruption of violence in a phone call with the Emir of Qatar, Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani. The two leaders stressed the need for “more regional and international efforts to compel the occupation forces to respect international law and halt their aggressive policies against the Palestinian people,” a statement by Sudani’s office said.   

On October 7, an Iraqi delegation involving Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi, Popular Mobilization Commission Chairman Falih al-Fayyadh, and Sunni Arab politicians Khamis al-Khanjar and Muthanna al-Samarrie, visited Ankara and met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan. A brief statement by Halbousi’s office said the talks in Ankara focused on bilateral cooperation and regional developments, without providing further details about the delegation’s mission or the outcome of their visit.  

On October 9, Hadi al-Amiri, the senior leader in the Coordination Framework and commander of the powerful Badr militia, threatened to target U.S. interests if Washington decided to intervene in the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas militants. Addressing a gathering of tribal chiefs, Amiri argued that Arab leaders have abandoned the Palestinian cause and that only the [Iran’s] Islamic revolution and “resistance” factions have remained steadfast in their support for Palestine. Other Iran-backed militia leaders made similar threats in the case of direct U.S. intervention in the conflict. On October 7, the commander of al-Nujaba militia, Akram al-Kabi, threatened to attack “the Zionist enemy and its supporters in the U.S. and their proxies” if the latter decided to “expand the front” of the conflict. On October 11, Kataib Hezbollah commander, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, said the militia would use rockets, drones, and special forces to strike U.S. bases and interests, as well as “known locations of the Zionist entity and its agents, if the situation demanded it.” Another militia commander, Qais al-Khazali, told Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in a phone call that the Iraqi “resistance” factions, including his Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia, were “ready to do anything necessary to liberate al-Quds and come to the aid of the Palestinian people.” Officially, the Popular Mobilization Forces issued a statement celebrating the attacks by Hamas militants on Israel and expressing “full support for our heroic resistance brothers.” Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, another key Coordination Framework leader, also congratulated Hamas on the impact of its “blessed operation” and called for a joining of efforts “inside and outside the occupied territories against this [Israeli] aggression.” Meanwhile, Muqtada al-Sadr called on his followers to organize a million man march in Baghdad to show their solidarity with the Palestinian people and burn Israeli flags.

On October 10, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani arrived in Moscow for a two-day trip and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The talks between the Iraqi delegation and the Russian government focused on enhancing bilateral cooperation in various sectors, with a focus on energy and the operations of Russian oil companies in Iraq, a statement by Sudani’s office said. According to Reuters, Putin told Sudani that he appreciated the cooperation between Baghdad and Moscow within the framework of the OPEC+ group to cut production and support prices, saying that “We coordinate work within the framework of OPEC+ and do this very successfully with the aim of stabilizing the situation on world markets. Overall, we succeed in this, and I hope we will continue to work with you in the future.” During the talks, Sudani asked Putin to use Russia’s influence as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to intervene to prevent further Israeli military operations against Gaza. During his second day in Moscow, Sudani met Putin again as the two leaders attended an energy forum in the Russian capital. During the visit, Iraqi officials from the Integrity Commission signed a memorandum of understanding with the Russian prosecutor general for the exchange of information about stolen funds and suspects or convicts involved in corruption cases.

On October 12, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, arrived in Baghdad as his first, and short stop, in a regional tour to discuss the conflict between Israel and Hamas with regional powers. There were no public statements from Iraqi officials about the outcome of Abdollahian’s talks in Baghdad. News reports indicated that the Iranian minister was forced to return to Baghdad after his flight from Baghdad to Damascus was prevented from landing due to Israeli strikes on the Syrian capital’s airport. 

Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, Mawazin, Iraqi PM’s office, Shafaq, ISHM archive, Rudaw, social media, INA, Reuters, NRT. 

Rockets Hit Refugee Camp; Iran Says Iraq Not Doing Enough To Implement Border Security Agreement; Candidate Steps Down Due To Threats

On October 7, security sources in Maysan province said that unidentified gunmen opened fire from small arms on the residence of the governor, Ali Dwai, in al-Mijar district. The sources said the late night attack caused significant damage to the building, but there were no reports of casualties. 

On October 7, Rudaw reported that a number of rockets struck the Makhmour refugee camp, which hosts Kurdish refugees from Turkey. Local officials said the rockets, which struck the camp’s mosque around dinner time, killed a woman and two children, adding that no members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) were killed in the attack. The origin of the latest rockets remains unconfirmed, but the camp was targeted by the Turkish military on several occasions in recent years.   

On October 8, a candidate in the upcoming provincial elections from Diyala province announced that she was withdrawing her candidacy because of death threats against her family. The former candidate, Zina Hafidh al-Salihi said that “corrupt” powers in the province had threatened to kill her son if she didn’t pull from the race, without naming the entities that made this threat. 

On October 8, the chief of staff of the Iranian military, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, told the visiting Iraqi Interior Minister, Abdul-Amir al-Shamari, that Iraq’s efforts to secure the border region were “good but at the same time insufficient.” Speaking at a ceremony at Iran’s National Defense University, Bagheri added that Iraq’s effort to relocate opposition groups hostile to Tehran away from the border was “commendable, but we expect their complete disarmament in accordance with the agreement.” Bagheri was referring to the border security agreement that Iraq and Iran signed in March for the disarming and relocation of Iranian opposition groups away from the border. Last month, an Iraqi government committee overseeing the implementation of the security agreement announced that the evacuation of bases occupied by Iranian opposition groups near the border was fully completed. The committee said at the time that these groups had been “moved away from the border and disarmed.” 

On October 9, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that unidentified aircraft struck a convoy of Iran-backed militias near Albu-Kamal on the Iraqi-Syrian border. The Observatory said the airstrikes, which caused violent explosions, occurred at an informal border crossing called al-Sikak (meaning railway tracks) that’s often used by Iran-backed militias to move between Iraq and Syria. It is unknown how much damage or casualties were caused as a result, and ISHM could not determine the specific militias targeted in the strikes. 

On October 11, Iraqi counter-terrorism service (CTS) troops killed three ISIS militants during “Intelligence-based ambush” operations in the Tuzkhormatu district of Salah ad-Din province, a statement by the CTS said. 

Sources cited in this section include: Shafaq, Rudaw, INA. 

Iraq, Turkmenistan Move Closer To Finalizing Gas Deal; Dinar Drops Amid Confusion About Dollar Deposits

On October 6, Maksat Babayev, Turkmenistan’s State Minister and Chairman of Turkmengas, visited Baghdad for meetings with Iraqi officials, including Prime Minister Sudani, Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani, and Electricity Minister Ziyad Ali Fadhil. During the visit, Iraq and Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) concerning the delivery of natural gas from Turkmenistan to Iraq to meet fuel demand for power generation. A government statement said that an Iraqi delegation would head to Turkmenistan on the 25th of October to sign the gas sales agreements. The signing of the MoU comes after a delegation of senior Iraqi oil and electricity officials visited Turkmenistan in August and reached a “preliminary agreement” to import natural gas from the central Asian gas producer. Earlier this year, Iraqi officials said they were exploring new sources of natural gas, including Qatar, Venezuela, the Kurdistan region, and Turkmenistan, as the country seeks to find alternatives to unreliable imports from Iran. In related news, the Iraqi government decided this week to move forward with the construction of a permanent facility to receive and process liquified natural gas imported from other countries at al-Faw port on the Gulf. The decision followed a meeting with Italian consultants overseeing the port’s construction and recent discussions that an Iraqi delegation had in Qatar about possible gas imports. 

On October 8, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) sent a letter to all licensed banks in Iraq warning against unauthorized actions of refusing to allow customers to withdraw U.S. dollars they had previously deposited in their accounts at those banks. The letter said the CBI had recently received numerous complaints from customers who said the banks denied their withdrawal requests citing alleged CBI guidance. The letter further threatens to take “the necessary measures” against banks that continue to block the withdrawals, without specifying what those measures would entail. The situation has unfolded after CBI said last week that it would impose a ban on cash withdrawals and other transactions in U.S. dollars starting January 1, 2024 in an effort to curb money laundering and violations of sanctions imposed on Iran. The CBI assured that deposits made in U.S. dollars before January 1, 2024 would not be affected. The confusion caused by this announcement, and reports that U.S. authorities declined an Iraqi request for $1 billion in cash from the country’s reserves, have sent the local currency’s value down. By Wednesday, October 11, the exchange rate on the parallel market had jumped to around IQD 1,630 to $1, before pulling back slightly to around IQD 1,600 to $1 on Thursday, which is approximately 21% higher than the official rate of IQD 1,320 to $1 set by the CBI. In related developments, the CBI said on October 12 that it decided to suspend financial transfers through Western Union until further notice. The suspension is intended to allow for “the activation of mechanisms and modern technologies for the verification of financial transactions.”  

On October 8, senior Iraqi oil officials told Reuters that Turkey had yet to send an official notice to Baghdad regarding its readiness to resume northern Iraqi oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan. Speaking on condition of anonymity, one of the officials said that “We as an oil ministry need to be informed officially by the Turkish side about the recent developments on the pipeline status. We heard about it in media only.” Another Iraqi oil official Iraq was also waiting for additional discussions with Turkey to address “lingering financial and technical issues” before the exports, halted since March, could resume again. This comes after Turkish Energy Minister, Alparsalan Bayraktar, said on October 2 that oil flow could resume before the end of that week. The Iraqi government has not made an official public comment on Bayraktar’s statement, but a member of the parliamentary oil and gas committee cautioned last week that Turkey still has unanswered demands that will be discussed when President Erdogan makes his anticipated, and delayed, visit to Baghdad.

On October 9, officials in the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) said that a joint financial auditing committee formed by the KRG and federal authorities has begun reviewing the records of public sector pensioners in the region. According to the head of the KRG team on the committee, the process could be completed within a week, long before the 30-day deadline. The auditing of public payroll records is part of the requirements set by the federal government to continue disbursing funds to cover public sector salaries and pensions in the Kurdistan region. On September 28, the KRG confirmed that Iraqi state-owned banks have sent a total of IQD 700 billion to the KRG accounts in order to pay the salaries of civil servants in the region. The cash transfers come after the federal government approved a new temporary arrangement under which it authorized the state-owned Rafidain, Rasheed, and TBI to provide three monthly loans of IQD 700 billion ($538 million) each starting in September. 

Sources cited in this section include: INA, ISHM archive, Mawazin, Rudaw, al-Sumaria, Shafaq, Reuters, Kurdistan24.

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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