Key Takeaways:

• Court Blocks Several Budget Law Articles; KRG Officially Asks IHEC To Oversee Regional Elections – On July 12, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court issued a ruling to suspend the implementation of several articles from the recently passed federal budget law. The ruling comes less than two weeks after PM Sudani filed an objection arguing that parliament took unconstitutional action by adding several articles that were not part of the original draft submitted by the government. On July 12, the president of the KRG sent an official request to IHEC to oversee the next vote to elect the regional parliament of Kurdistan, currently scheduled for November 18. In an immediate response to the KRG letter, an IHEC spokeswoman said the Commission was willing to oversee the election but “affirms that it cannot conduct the provincial council elections in Iraq and the Kurdistan parliament elections at the same time.” In other developments, on July 13, members of the Iraqi Christian community demonstrated in Ankawa in objection to a decision by Iraq’s president to recall a 2013 decree by his predecessor that recognized Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako as Patriarch of the Chaldeans. This comes amid signs of rising tension between Cardinal Sako and the Babylon movement of Rayyan al-Kildani, which is often accused of hijacking the representation of Iraq’s Christian community. On July 13, local sources in Erbil said the PM Sudani began an unannounced visit to the Kurdistan region to meet with KDP leader Masoud Barzani. more…
• Demonstrations Demand Evacuation OF PMF Headquarters In Basra As Tensions Between Militias Continue – On July 11, hundreds of people demonstrated in Basra demanding that militias evacuate the presidential palace complex in the city, which hosts the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the provincial offices of other government agencies. The demonstration, held uder tight security, was peaceful. The protests, in which demonstrators held banners condemning “attacks on homes” followed a number of incidents that pointed to heightened tensions between followers of Muqtada al-Sadr and the rival Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) militia, including attacks targeting a local Sadrist leader and a lawmaker affiliated with AAH. In other developments, on July 11, armed PMF personnel forcibly entered the offices of the journalists’ association in the city of Diwaniyah, planning to occupy it, a local lawmaker said. News reports indicate the PMF members withdrew after the Interior Minister and Diwaniyah governor intervened to resolve the standoff. more…
• More than 20,000 People Displaced By Climate Change In Southern Iraq Since Last Fall – On July 10, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) published new data on the scale of climate-induced displacement affecting communities in southern Iraq. The data shows that as of mid-June, more than 83,500 individuals (comprising 13,920 families) were experiencing displacement from their areas due to water shortages impacting ten provinces. The new data indicates that the number of individuals displaced by water scarcity has increased by approximately 20,800 since last fall, when the number stood at 62,700. Almost a third of the displaced families (4,420) are from Dhi-Qar province, followed by Maysan (4,150 families), Diwaniyah (1,622 families) and Muthanna (1,478 families). Also this week, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) raised concerns about the “grave consequences of climate change and water scarcity” on the marshes of southern Iraq and their inhabitants. Recent data collected by FAO indicates the water level of the Euphrates in Dhi-Qar was a mere 56 centimeters, while the marshes had somewhere between zero and 30 centimeters. As a result, almost 70% of the marshes currently have no water. In other developments, on July 6, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said that KRG authorities ordered the Rasan organization, the region’s only nonprofit that advocates for LGBTQ rights to cease operations, calling the move “a clear message [by the KRG] that it does not respect freedom of association.” more…
• Major Energy Deal With TotalEnergies Finally Signed; Iraq To Trade Crude And Fuel Oil For Iranian Gas – On July 10, Iraq’s Oil Ministry and TotalEnergies signed contracts for a major energy deal known as the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP), which involves four projects worth an estimated $27 billion. The deal, which encountered many delays since it was first initiated in 2021 due to disagreements over financing and ownership stakes, involves processing and transport seawater for injection, harnessing 600 million cubic feet per day of associated gas, developing the Ratawi oil field, and building a 1,000 megawatt solar farm. On July 12, PM Sudani said Iraq will begin trading crude and fuel for gas and electricity imported from Iran in an effort to resolve delayed payment issues that recently caused Iran to slash gas exports by more than half. Iraq’s power generation, which lost 5,000 megawatts last week, reportedly recovered nearly 2,400 megawatts after the announcement, as gas supplies began to improve. In other developments, on July 11, Iraq’s Planning Ministry said that its latest estimates put Iraq’s population at 43.324 million people. On July 12, the Iraqi government approved plans by the Ministry of Oil to purchase unspecified amounts of natural gas from the Khor Mor gas field in Kurdistan region to supply power plants with fuel. more…

For more background on most of the institutions, key actors, political parties, and locations mentioned in our takeaways or in the stories that follow, see the ISHM Reference Guide.

Court Blocks Several Budget Law Articles; KRG Officially Asks IHEC To Oversee Regional Elections

On July 12, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court issued a ruling to suspend the implementation of several articles from the recently passed federal budget law. The ruling comes less than two weeks after the government of Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani filed objections against certain articles and clauses in the federal budget law arguing that parliament took unconstitutional action by adding several articles that were not part of the original draft submitted by the government. The Court’s ruling specifically suspends the implementation of articles 28.4.a and b, 57.1.c, 65.2, 70.2, 71, and 75. Copies of the Court’s ruling documents can be found here. 

On July 12, the president of the Kurdistan regional government (KRG) sent an official request to Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) to oversee the next vote to elect the regional parliament of Kurdistan, currently scheduled to be held on November 18. The request comes after Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruled on May 30 that an October 2022 vote by the Kurdistan region’s parliament to extend its term by one year was illegal, thereby ending the legislature’s term. In an immediate response to the KRG letter, an IHEC spokeswoman said the Commission was willing to oversee the Kurdistan elections but “affirms that it cannot conduct the provincial council elections in Iraq and the Kurdisan parliament elections at the same time.” The spokeswoman, Jumana al-Ghalai, added that IHEC needs “at least 6 or 7 months to prepare for the [Kurdistan] parliamentary elections” after conducting the national provincial elections, scheduled for December 2023.The Commission is scheduled to have a meeting next week to further discuss and consider the KRG request.  

On July 13, members of the Iraqi Christian community demonstrated in the Ankawa district of Erbil in objection to a decision by Iraq’s president to recall a 2013 decree by his predecessor that recognized Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako as patriarch of the Chaldeans. In a statement on July 7, President Abdul-Latif Rashid said he recalled the decree in question in order to “correct a constitutional situation” adding that his predecessor, the late Jalal Talabani, issued the decree without “constitutional or legal backing.” In a letter addressed to Rashid on July 10, Sako urged the president to reconsider his decision, arguing that the president was given bad legal advice designed to embarrass the president and weaken the Christian community. This development follows recent signs of rising tension and competition between Cardinal Sako and the Babylon movement of Rayyan al-Kildani over the leadership of Iraq’s Christian community. In May, Sako accused Kildani, a militia leader designated by the U.S. for engaging in human rights abuses, of “stealing the properties” of Christians in Baghdad and Ninewa hijacking their community’s representation in parliament. 

On July 13, local sources in Erbil province said the Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani began an unannounced visit to the Kurdistan region. According to news reports, Sudani was seen with Masoud Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Foreign Affairs Minister Fuad Hussein touring two resorts in Rawandoz and Bekhal. 

Sources cited in this section include: INA, ISHM archives, Nas News, Rudaw, Shafaq, Kurdistan24, al-Sumaria. 

Demonstrations Demand Evacuation OF PMF Headquarters In Basra As Tensions Between Militias Continue

On July 7, troops from Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Service killed five ISIS militants during a nighttime air assault operation in the Altun-Kupri subdistrict of Kirkuk province, a statement by the Iraqi military said.  

On July 10, security sources in Diyala province said that an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated on a farm in the Abu Saida subdistrict, northeast of Baquba. The explosion gravely wounded the farm’s owner, who later died at the hospital.  

On July 11, hundreds of people demonstrated in Basra demanding that militias evacuate the presidential palace complex in the city, which hosts the headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the provincial offices of other government agencies. The Basra police commander said the demonstration was peaceful, adding that security forces were deployed to protect both demonstrators and public property. The protests, in which demonstrators held banners condemning “attacks on homes” followed a number of incidents that pointed to heightened tensions between followers of Muqtada al-Sadr and the rival Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) militia, including an attacks targeting a local Sadrist leader and a lawmaker affiliated with AAH. 

On July 11, an armed force from the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) forcibly entered and took control of the offices of the journalists’ association in the city of Diwaniyah, lawmaker Nour Nafi said. The PMF force reportedly told the association that it intends to “occupy” the building, which is undergoing renovations. The local head of the journalists association issued a statement condemning the actions of the PMF members who entered the building and demanded a public apology from the pMF leadership for the incident. News reports indicate the PMF members withdrew after the Interior Minister and Diwaniyah governor intervened to resolve the standoff. 

On July 13, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said that one of its fighters was killed when a legacy IED detonated near him during search operations in the Jurf al-Sakhr area in Babylon province.  

Sources cited in this section include: al-Sumaria, Shafaq, Rudaw, ISHM archives.

More than 20,000 People Displaced By Climate Change In Southern Iraq Since Last Fall

On July 6, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said that authorities in the Kurdistan region ordered the Rasan organization, region’s only nonprofit that advocates for the rights of the LGBTQ community to cease its operations.The head of the shuttered organization told HRW that the court cited the organization’s logo, colored similar to the rainbow, in it ruling, which stated that “the expert committee confirmed that the logo of the organization is a complete expression of its activities in the field of homosexuality.” Commenting on the ruling, HRW’s Middle East director said the closure represented “not only an attack on civil society in Kurdistan but is also a direct threat to the lives and wellbeing of the vulnerable people they support…By closing Rasan, the government has sent a clear message that it does not respect freedom of association.” The court order is the result of a lawsuit filed in 2021 by a member of the region’s parliament, who accused the organization of “promoting homosexuality,” and “engaging in activities that defy social norms, traditions, and public morality.” After the lawsuit, 11 current or former Rasan staff members faced arrest warrants for engaging in “public indecency.”

On July 10, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) published new data on the scale of climate-induced displacement affecting communities in southern Iraq. The data shows that as of mid-June, more than 83,500 individuals (comprising 13,920 families) were experiencing displacement from their areas due to water shortages impacting ten provinces. Of these families, nearly four in ten were in displacement within their home districts. Most of the displaced (more than 7 in 10) had relocated to urban areas because water scarcity and high salinity undermined agriculture and overall livelihoods. Almost a third of the displaced families (4,420) are from Dhi-Qar province, followed by Maysan (4,150 families), Diwaniyah (1,622 families) and Muthanna (1,478 families). The worst affected district is al-Shatra in Dhi-Qar province, which reported 2,345 families displaced, followed by Afag in Diwaniyah with 1,507 families. The new data indicate that the number of individuals displaced by water scarcity has increased by approximately 20,800 since last fall, when the number stood at 62,700. Meanwhile, the UN FOod and Agriculture Organization (FAO) raised concerns about the “grave consequences of climate change and water scarcity on the marshes of southern Iraq and their inhabitants. Recent data collected by FAO project staff in Iraq indicated the water level of the Euphrates in Dhi-Qar province was a mere 56 centimeters, while the marshes had somewhere between zero and 30 centimeters. Almost 70% of the marshes currently have no water, according to the Center for Restoration of the Iraqi Marshes and Wetlands at the Ministry of Water Resources.  FAO experts warned that buffalos in the marshes are “suffering from malnutrition, and some dying from the salty water in the low-lying marshes,” adding that “the urgency of the situation requires swift and decisive action.” 

Sources cited in this section include: Reliefweb, ISHM archives, Human Rights Watch.

Major Energy Deal With TotalEnergies Finally Signed; Iraq To Trade Crude And Fuel Oil For Iranian Gas

On July 6, Iraq’s Planning Ministry reported that inflation levels during the month of May 2023 decreased slightly by 0.2% from the previous month. The Ministry noted that inflation levels in May were up 3.4% when compared with the same month in 2022. 

On July 10, Iraq’s Oil Ministry and TotalEnergies signed contracts for a major energy deal known as the Gas Growth Integrated Project (GGIP), which involves four projects worth an estimated $27 billion. The deal, which encountered many delays since it was first initiated in 2021 due to disagreements over financing and ownership stakes, involves a seawater processing and transport project, a project to harness associated gas from several oil fields with a capacity of 600 million cubic feet per day, a third project to develop the Ratawi oil field, and the construction of a 1,000 megawatt solar energy plant. TotalEnergies will have a 45% stake in the venture, while Iraq will control 30% and the remaining 25% will go to QatarEnergy.

On July 10, Iraq’s Ministry of Transportation reported an increase in the number of international flights passing through Iraq’s airspace over the last few months. According to a statement by the ministry, there were a total of 14,894 overflights that crossed Iraq’s airspace during the month of April. That number increased to 16,340 during the month of June. The statement attributed the increase to improved adherence to ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) regulations. 

On July 11, Iraq’s Planning Ministry said that its latest estimates put Iraq’s population at 43.324 million people, of whom 50.5% are male and 49.5% are female. A ministry statement said the country’s population was growing at an estimated annual rate of 2.5%. According to the ministry’s estimates, people under the age of 15 comprised approximately 40% of the population, while people ages 15-64 represented 57% of the total, and seniors over the age of 65 made up the remaining 3%. Life expectancy is at an average of 74 years and mortality rates among children under 5 years old are under 20 per 100,000 births. Nearly 70% of the population lived in urban settings while just over 30% lived in rural environments. According to the ministry, nearly half of Iraq’s population resides in four provinces: Baghdad, Ninewa, Basra and Dhi-Qar.

On July 12, the Iraqi government said it will begin trading crude and fuel for gas and electricity imported from Iran in an effort to resolve delayed payment issues due to U.S. sanctions on Iran. Iran has recently slashed gas exports to Iraq by more than half as sanctions imposed by Washington disrupted payments by Iraq to Iran, Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani said. Last week, Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity said that gas imports dropped from 45 to 20 million cubic meters per day, causing Iraq’s power grid to lose nearly 5,000 megawatts from central and southern power plants. After the Wednesday announcement, Iraq’s Oil Ministry said the new oil for gas barter would be conducted based on international market prices for fuel. Power generation reportedly recovered by nearly 2,400 megawatts as of Thursday, as gas supplies began to improve, according to Electricity Minister Ziyad Ali Fadhil.  

On July 12, the Iraqi government approved plans by the Ministry of Oil to purchase natural gas from the Khor Mor gas field in the Kurdistan region, a statement by the Council of Ministers said. Gas from the field, operated by the Dana Gas led Pearl Consortium, would be used to feed power plants amid supply shortages due to disruptions of gas imports from Iran. The government statement did not specify the volumes, prices, or timelines associated with the purchase. 

Sources cited in this section include: Mawazni, ISHM archives, Iraq’s Oil Ministry, Nas News, INA, Iraqi PM’s office, al-Sabaah, Rudaw. 

Derived from firsthand accounts and Iraq-based Arabic and Kurdish news sources, the Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor is a free publication of the Enabling Peace in Iraq Center.

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