This analysis by Omar Al-Nidawi was originally published by Amwaj Media.

As anticipation rises ahead of Iraq’s parliamentary elections in November, so is deep seated concern that the polls could upturn the fragile recovery of the economy and security situation. Despite the seemingly improved conditions in recent years, there are strong indicators of democratic backsliding in state institutions, with potentially far-reaching implications for regional security.

The upcoming polls will surely test public confidence in Iraq’s fraught political system. They will also provide a bellwether for the prospects of reform that could address an ongoing political legitimacy crisis among elites. Amid the exit of international observers, and seemingly declining interest among global institutions, Iraq risks succumbing again to the insecurity and political chaos that defined its recent history.

Longing for legitimacy

Given Iraq’s recent history of competitive politics, the path forward is bleak. The previous parliamentary polls held in 2021, populated by primarily illiberal political forces—backed by armed wings—were by many standards a setback for democracy.

At the heart of Iraq’s legitimacy crisis is the fact that most of Iraq’s powerful parties operate armed wings in contravention of the constitution and Political Parties Law. This persistent violation is the biggest obstacle to credible democratic outcomes.

That fundamental problem was in full display in 2021. The aftermath of the elections that year saw a power struggle ensuing between Muqtada Al-Sadr’s Sadrist Movement, whose party came first with 73 of parliament’s 329 seats, and the Shiite Coordination Framework, a constellation of Iran-allied political parties, that garnered only 50. Part of this outcome was due to disenchantment with establishment parties.

However, electoral reforms also played a role, leading the Coordination Framework to lose many seats despite garnering almost twice as many ballots in total versus the Sadrists. There have subsequently been efforts to roll back some of the reforms which were favorable to smaller parties.

Continue reading this analysis on Amwaj Media.